By Anjali
The world was stunned when Hamas launched a large-scale attack on Israel on Saturday. The most talked about is the fiasco of Israel’s intelligence which is however not unprecedented as the 1973 Yom Kippur war is the prominent example when Israeli intelligence failed to detect the ensuing war. It is obvious that just like Rome was not built in a day, Hamas must have planned for this attack over a long period of time, gathering cross-border information and searching for the loophole in the world’s best intelligence frameworks.
Here, multiple factors are indicated when we try to contemplate the latest armed conflict. First of all, Hamas have played smart by mobilizing their troops on Sabbath. Sabbath is the official day of rest for Jews from Friday evening to Saturday evening, when they devote the entire day in praying either at home or at synagogue. The country comes to a halt for 24 hours. There couldn’t be any other appropriate day for striking Israeli territory. Even during the Yom Kippur war, the enemy states took advantage of sabbath to attack the Jewish state.
Another factor that allowed Hamas to embark on this venture is the internal turmoil of Israel as the tiny country is reeling under continuous protests against the controversial Judicial overhaul plan put forth by incumbent far-right government spearheaded by Benjamin Netanyahu. Thousands of Israeli citizens have been thronging the streets to prevent its democracy from faltering. The tensions between people and the government have led to a bleak domestic situation. This is something which was exploited by Hamas for fulfilling their nefarious goal of storming Israel by surprise.
Apart from this, as Israel-Saudi normalization processes are doing rounds, there are states like Iran who are uncomfortable with this upcoming de-escalation. And we should not forget the fact that Hamas is backed by Iran so this assault on Israel has the entwined aim of disrupting or at least postponing the gush of peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran here subtly signals its presence in the Middle East and is going to remain entrenched in the shadow war with Israel. Also, this onslaught is likely going to reinforce the hardline tendencies of the Netanyahu government which is tied up by various Ultra-Orthodox parties. The compromise which Saudi seeks for Palestinians in exchange for recognition of Israel is going to further founder albeit the right-wing government of Israel wasn’t going to relinquish any inch of their biblical land to Palestine.
In addition, it has to be taken into account that this attempt by Hamas is not anyway linked to “Liberation of Palestine”. However, the militant organization, dubbed as a terrorist group by many countries, is going to definitely portray before the Palestinians as the sole saviour of the Palestinian cause and showcasing itself as the legitimate Palestinian authority, representing the interests of Palestinian population. As Fatah, which rules the West Bank and is the de jure Palestinian authority, has denounced violence, this again will be manipulated by Hamas for its gains. Hamas will build a vicious narrative that they are the ones who are prepared to sacrifice for their motherland, arousing nationalism among the Palestinians and therefore, garnering support among the people who already have limited choice.
Another element that needs consideration is that Saudis and Hamas do not have amicable relations as Hamas is supported by Iran which though have signed a normalization treaty with Saudi Arabia, is its regional rival. Hamas and Saudi Arabia tried to mend their partnership but that was a transient phase.
Furthermore, if we look at the reactions of the major countries of the world, Saudi Arabia stands out, which is because the Saudi foreign ministry response has been very meticulous. The statement says “ The kingdom calls for an immediate halt to the escalation between both the sides, the protection of civilians, and restraint”. Further the ministry goes on to state “ The Kingdom recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities”. It is quite significant to decode Saudi’s response because it has been vocal time and again when it comes to throwing brickbats at Israel. But this fighting between Israel and Palestinian faction comes at a time when the greatest rapprochement is set to take place in the Middle East which is the outcome of a tough grind of several years and as MBS remarked that both the countries are closest than ever for normalization which neither party wants to jeopardize . Therefore, Saudis in their statement, have not directly blamed Israelis for the attack and simultaneously they have expressed their concern for the Palestinian civilians which depicts them as the Palestinian sympathizer without harming their fragile relations with Israel.
In conclusion, this asymmetric warfare between Israel and Hamas is barely going to affect Israel’s capabilities given its superior technology. It is just going to bring Hamas in limelight among the Palestinians and the world and as well might defer agreement between the Saudis and Israel a little.
The author has completed her Masters in International Relations and Area Studies. Her interest lies in geopolitics of Middle East and North Africa with special focus on Israel’s domestic politics and its foreign policy. Currently, she is working as a geopolitical risk intern
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