By Prof (Dr) Nishakant Ojha
Climate change is intensifying worldwide security challenges, with potential for further military implications. Its impacts, including food and water scarcity, infrastructure damage, and mass displacement, heighten the risk of conflicts. Moreover, exacerbated natural disasters pose humanitarian crises and disrupt supply chains. The military may be tasked with addressing these issues and could also be involved in establishing new bases or safeguarding critical energy resources like oil and gas.
China’s plan to establish a large-scale weather modification system by 2025 has raised concerns, particularly among its neighbouring countries. The State Council’s announcement states that artificial rainfall (or snowfall) operations will cover more than 5.5 million square kilometres, while hail suppression efforts will extend over 580,000 square kilometres.
The primary reasons for enhancing these weather modification capabilities are linked to environmental issues such as climate change, environmental protection, and disaster management, especially in terms of preparedness. This technology is a key component of China’s goal to be recognized as a technological superpower, aiming to reach a globally advanced level in operations, technology, and services by 2035.
Weather modification has a history of use not only in China but also in other countries like the United States and India. Cloud seeding, a technique used for decades, helps arid and semi-arid regions combat droughts and similar conditions. Such technologies are also employed to control rain, hail, and snow. For example, China used cloud seeding to ensure dry weather during the 2008 Olympics. In Xinjiang, weather modification has reduced agricultural damage from hail by 70% and increased precipitation in drought-affected areas.
While China may utilise these technologies for domestic purposes to improve the quality of life for its citizens, there is limited consideration for the regional repercussions, particularly in South and Southeast Asia. The geopolitical and security implications of these technologies necessitate thorough international investigation, analysis, and action. Similarly, China’s dam-building activities on the Tibetan Plateau have raised significant concerns. The plan to construct over 50 dams on rivers such as the Brahmaputra and Mekong has elicited suspicion and apprehension from neighbouring countries. Additionally, a dam in the Gilgit-Baltistan region on the Indus river has become controversial due to issues of sovereignty, transparency, and environmental and socio-economic impacts.
India has long speculated about the potential effects of Chinese dam construction on itself and other downstream countries like Bangladesh. Theories abound regarding China’s intentions, from plans to divert the Brahmaputra to linking floods in Northeast India to Chinese activities on the Tibetan Plateau, creating a lack of clarity about the broader regional consequences.
China’s history of controlling natural resources through large engineering projects, like the Three Gorges Dam, and using them strategically, suggests that its weather modification efforts could pose significant challenges for countries like India. The geopolitical context further complicates matters. For instance, during the India-China clashes in the Galwan Valley and ongoing border tensions, there were allegations that China attempted to alter the Galwan river to create flash floods and disrupt Indian infrastructure projects and military operations. Following the 2017 Doklam standoff, China did not share hydrological data on the Brahmaputra with India, citing “technical reasons,” although it continued to share data with Bangladesh. While data sharing resumed in 2018, such unilateral actions could be used by China as leverage against India in the future.
China’s extensive weather modification program is not entirely unexpected. The Tianhe (Sky River) project, revealed a few years ago, hinted at the potential scale of its plans. This cloud seeding geoengineering initiative, despite being labeled as “rogue science” by some Chinese scientists, aims to address water scarcity and drought in the largely arid northern regions by diverting water vapor from the wetter southern areas. The project, considered an “air corridor,” is part of China’s ambitious South-North Water Diversion Project. It involves using “localised chemical agents,” such as silver iodide particles from fuel-burning chambers, to increase rainfall by 10 billion cubic meters annually, which is about 7 percent of China’s total water consumption. However, the potential negative impacts on the broader region and neighboring countries remain uncertain.
The lack of comprehensive data, research, and transparency regarding the effects of weather modification on transboundary precipitation patterns, ecosystems, and river flows could escalate China’s geoengineering activities into a significant geopolitical issue. For example, some countries have termed cloud seeding as “cloud stealing,” and concerns about the environmental and health effects of silver iodide particles, as well as the overall effectiveness of the technology, have been frequently scrutinised.
Geoengineering, like any other technology, takes on the meaning a country assigns to it. Given the adversarial relations between India and China, it is crucial to assess whether such technologies might be militarised. These technologies are inherently dual-use and could have military applications. The potential for militarisation of geoengineering is further fueled by the involvement of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, a significant space and defense contractor, in the Tianhe project, which utilises advanced military rocket engine technology and satellite networks.
Meanwhile, global scientific research on climate-related geoengineering, defined as “the deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s natural systems to counteract climate change,” is gaining momentum. As the dialogue around the “climate crisis” and “climate emergency” intensifies, more countries are likely to adopt technologies for solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to combat climate change. SRM aims to cool the Earth by reflecting more sunlight back into space via stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection, while CDR seeks to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. China is also investing in geoengineering research through the National Key Basic Research Program. However, China typically frames these efforts as a means to investigate the impacts, risks, and governance challenges rather than deployment.
Given China’s proposed expansion of its cloud seeding geoengineering program and its recent climate targets, including the goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, it is essential to scrutinize China’s intentions and readiness in this area.
Numerous nations, such as the US, China, and India, have ratified the Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques (ENMOD). However, ensuring compliance and assigning responsibility for the “peaceful” use of such technologies can be complex, especially given the limited understanding of their effects, like those associated with geoengineering. Some countries, including the US and Saudi Arabia, have opposed discussions on governing geoengineering, even at forums like the United Nations Environmental Assembly (UNEA).
India should conduct a thorough evaluation of China’s weather modification and potential climate engineering capabilities. Diplomatically, regional solidarity and initiatives are needed to pressure China against unilateral deployment of these technologies. India could lead regional discussions to enhance understanding of geoengineering and its governance, potentially paving the way for national, regional, and international frameworks to assess its implications.
Given regional tensions, transparency and data sharing regarding geoengineering deployments may face obstacles. India might need to develop capabilities to counter any militarisation of China’s geoengineering efforts.
The author is Eminent Expert -Geo-Politics & Counter Terrorism.
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