States take pride in hosting the global summit. It is India’s moment to showcase its organisational skills and accomplishments to the world. India has made stupendous progress in the last 75 years, and it is ready to display its democracy, diversity and development. This is the most prestigious global event that India will host since the Non-Aligned Movement Summit in 1983. Therefore, it is time to celebrate rather than crib about the absence of a few leaders or resolving hardcore global issues.
The Financial Express Online interviewed Dr Rajan Kumar, Associate Professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. He has written extensively on India’s multilateralism and foreign policy.
Following are excerpts
How do you see the G20 as an international organisation?
The G20 is a vital international organisation. Strictly speaking, it cannot be characterised as a formal organisation as it lacks a permanent secretariat and regular staff. A troika of the past, present and future hosts manage its affairs. Nonetheless, it is an organisation of the leading states which control nearly 78 per cent of the global GDP and 75 per cent of international trade. Barring the UN, no other organisation is comparable to the G20 regarding representation, outreach and agendas discussed.
In a highly globalised world, it becomes imperative to develop mechanisms to tackle transnational issues. Concerns related to macro-economic stability, SDGs, climate change, green energy, food and energy crises, cryptocurrency and terrorism cannot be addressed by an individual or group of states. They require global consensus building, and that’s exactly what the G20 does. The role of the G20 is to deliberate on issues of common concerns and leave it to individual states to implement the decision. In some ways, it helps transcend the rigid bloc politics and prevents states from adopting protectionist policies.
Economic and financial coordination remains the centrepiece of the G20 agendas. But in several summits, it has expanded its domain to include climate change, corruption, health crisis and digital transformations. In 2009, it discussed the Iranian nuclear programme; in 2017, it deliberated on the Syrian crisis; and in the Bali Summit, the Russia-Ukraine war was discussed.
Why is the G20 facing a crisis?
The G20, like any other global multilateral institution, has become a hostage of rising geopolitical tensions. Multilateral institutions, in general, are facing existential crises. The G20 may have passed its prime. It worked best when the world was predominantly unipolar in the early 2000s. But the emerging multipolarity has thrown up new challenges.
China’s rise has complicated the harmony that existed earlier. In an interview with the BBC earlier, Rishi Sunak, the prime minister of the UK, said: ‘China is a country with fundamentally different values to ours, and it represents a challenge to the world order’. Similarly, Beijing and Washington view each other as strategic rivals. They are moving towards great power confrontation. Under such circumstances, the rift between the two powers is likely to grow further, and institutions such as the G20 will bear the brunt.
Second, the rising protectionism is the new global norm. After the pandemic, most states, including the US, have adopted some protectionism. They have raised trade tariffs and subsidised their indigenous manufacturing. Such policies are short-sighted and detrimental to the progress of multilateralism.
Third, the Russia-Ukraine war has adversely impacted the functioning of all global international institutions. We are witnessing a re-emergence of rigid bloc politics. The Western bloc has re-united itself, while Russia and China have begun functioning as a bloc in international institutions. The Western attempt to create unity is resisted by the Beijing-Moscow axis. This situation is likely to intensify in the coming years. Keeping the G20 afloat itself has become a challenge.
How will the absence of Putin and Xi impact the G20 Summit in New Delhi?
The G20 deals with two types of issues: ‘low politics’ or purely economic, developmental and financial issues, and ‘high politics’, which involves security issues. So far as financial and developmental issues are concerned, the states will negotiate mutually and seek common ground. For instance, some consensus may emerge on social and developmental issues. But their differences become pronounced on security issues. The Russia-Ukraine war and rising tension in the South China Sea are extremely sensitive issues of high politics. The Western bloc will try to declare Russia an aggressor, while Russia, backed by China, will fiercely resist such an attempt. New Delhi will try to calm them down and create some common ground, but the chances of its success are low.
Xi’s absence will reduce the chances of consensus on ‘high politics’. It was expected that Putin would skip the Summit, and Moscow had valid reasons to justify his absence. But the same cannot be said about Xi. Xi’s absence will diminish the profile of the G20 Summit somewhat. But it also puts a question mark on China as a responsible power. Apparently, China is not interested in resolving the Russia-Ukraine war or perhaps Xi thinks that the time and place are not appropriate for discussing this issue. In any case, this is neither good for the G20 nor for China.
Experts in India believe this might be a deliberate Chinese decision to water down India’s accomplishments. New Delhi may also avoid such summits hosted by China in future.
How important are the issues of the ‘Global South’ for the G20?
The Global South has become a contested space. On the one hand, the West is trying to retain and enhance its influence on the Global South. But the West faces stiff resistance from the Global South’s emerging powers, which are trying to expand their outreach. China has already extended its influence through the BRI, soft power and non-conditional aids. India is the new entrant.
To its credit, New Delhi is actively wooing the countries of the Global South. Early this year, it organised a Summit, and now it sincerely advocates their issues at the G20 Summit. Concerns related to the supply of food energy, climate change, debt restructuring and financing of green energy projects are vital to the countries of the Global South. By advocating the membership of the African Union to the G20, India has sent a favourable message to the African states.
Further, the subsequent two Summits are scheduled in Brazil and South Africa. Brazil’s President is a strong advocate of the solidarity of the Global South. Therefore, the Global South will remain relevant, at least for a few years.
What are the expectations from the Summit?
It is good to be ambitious, but that might lead to frustration, too. We will likely see some progress on SDGs, funding of green energy transition, health and digital cooperation, and commitments on climate change. However, the bloc politics will persist unabated on the hardcore issues of the Russia-Ukraine war.