So what will get the viewers back into multiplexes?
Sans big-budget releases, this summer — ostensibly the busiest for mutiplexes — theatre occupancy has been in the 18-20% range, slightly ahead of break-even. The two-month-long general elections and the IPL cricket season proved a dampener. Kartik Aryan starrer Chandu Champion saw a dull opening on June 14 (Day 1 BO: Rs 4.75 crore, as per early estimates of industry tracking website Sacnilk), with experts putting its lifetime net box office in the vicinity of Rs 100 crore.
According to IMDb, an online database, only three films have crossed the Rs 100-crore mark domestically so far this year – Fighter (Hindi; Rs 212.5 crore), Manjummel Boys (Malayalam; Rs 134 crore) and Shaitaan (Hindi; Rs 150 crore).
Then, Q2FY25 was supposed to be the strongest quarter in FY25, led by big-ticket releases such as Sarfira, Pushpa 2, Indian 2, Stree 2 and Kalki 2898 AD; but recent media reports suggest Pushpa 2 will be postponed.
Looks like, Indian multiplex’s dry spell could last beyond the summer.
As per Elara Securities estimates, Hindi box office in Q1FY25E is set to decline by 21% YoY to Rs 5.8 billion, which indicates that the overall box office revenue too will see a sharp decline YoY, as the performance of regional and English content has not given much hope to cling to. “Regional content has fared well only in the Malayalam genre, which has already reported gross box office of Rs 10 billion in CY24 so far, which has doubled YoY, led by small and medium budget films doing well consistently,” says a recent report put out by the firm.
The villain of the piece has been poor content, say analysts. “Post-pandemic, for a film to work, two things are needed: it has to be relatable or the content has to be of a very high standard. Over-marketing on social media and revealing too much in trailers can go against a film. The audience is smart,” says Utpal Acharya, CEO of Content Engineers.
The story so far
The year 2023 lifted multiplex spirits after the lull of the Covid years. Shah Rukh Khan and his monster hits Jawan and Pathaan, Deol brothers with projects like Gadar 2 (Sunny Deol) and Animal (Bobby) got people flocking to theatres. And for the first time in five years, the number of movie screens across the country saw a small rise in 2023, with Hindi-speaking markets leading the growth, followed by east and south, according to a Ficci-EY media and entertainment industry report.
The movie industry minted record ticket revenues of Rs 12,226 crore in 2023 as theatres registered 943 million footfalls, a growth over 2022, but much below the pre-pandemic peak of 1,030 million in 2019, said Ormax.
The factors that have often added to the plight of a movie are old foes such as piracy sites; its release on OTT platforms with uncut versions, and the constant chatter about the script being great (or not) across social media. The time window between theatrical release and OTT release was cut from eight to four weeks post Covid. This played a part in the consumer’s decision too.
On the flip side, in the age of social media, word of mouth did work in some movies’ favour. Munjya, for instance, made Rs 4 crore on its first day, but ended its first week at Rs 35 crore, picking up pace on the back of great word of mouth.
“In the Hindi film industry, just like any other content industry, ultimately, if the content is good, (then) the movie will work,” sums up Jehil Thakkar, media & entertainment partner, Deloitte India.