By Dhruv Garg and Dedipyaman Shukla
The further development of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, such as OpenAI’s natural language processing model ‘ChatGPT’, will bring about the ‘destruction of our civilization…’, or so says Elon Musk, who believes that unregulated AI development may have disastrous consequences for humanity. Some leading academics had proposed a global moratorium on generative AI Development. Despite these calls, AI growth data paints a radically different picture with the generative AI market expanding at a CAGR of 42% according to recent Bloomberg Intelligence report.
While AI development certainly merits closer scrutiny, Indian policymakers need to comprehensively consider all factors at play. Firstly, a moratorium or intentional slowdown on AI development may not ever be feasible. There are already numerous AI models in development, including Google’s Bard, NVIDIA’s Megatron, and Microsoft’s Bing AI. China is also rapidly advancing down the path of AI development, having already deployed AI-based facial recognition technology at scale. In this cut-throat environment, the principles of game theory dictate that India would lose its edge to any disobedient actors with such a self-imposed AI moratorium/ slowdown.
The economic repercussions of the AI race are also worth consideration. A large part of our services exports emanates from the IT sector, reaching over $194 billion in 2022-23, out of a total of $770 billion that year. In the absence of this robust IT & ITeS sector, our balance of trade deficit would be far more severe than (-) $122 billion. Generative AI poses a serious new threat to the prospects for India’s IT industry due to its ability to automate labor-intensive tasks. This was noted very early on by noted economist Paul Krugman. To offset the possible decline in IT exports, it will be crucial to harness domestic AI capabilities which can provide high-value export potential.
We will also need to contend with the long-term socio-economic consequences of AI. The automation of existing jobs, including various ‘white-collar’ roles, may have significant repercussions for India’s workforce on a scale similar to the industrial revolution. A recent Microsoft report indicated that 74% of Indian workers were concerned that AI would replace their jobs. In a globalized economy connected through the internet, some job-loss may be inevitable regardless of domestic AI development. While AI is likely to disrupt labour markets, it may not necessarily cause a direct reduction in total job numbers. It is more likely that the nature of productive work will itself change, with new AI tools assisting humans perform their work with greater efficiency. This phenomenon was observed during the advent of the information-age, which created a new class of Indian IT and software professionals. There is no doubt that the Central Government is already aware of this complex issue. A ‘Future Skills Prime Platform’ has already been launched at the Union level in partnership with the IT-ITeS Sector Skill Council to up-skill IT professionals in emerging technologies. Scaling up these kinds of re-skilling initiatives may be one solution to the job loss conundrum.
Our regulatory setup will also need to address new ethical questions arising with the abuse of AI tools. While the NITI Aayog has already released a a National Strategy for AI along with AI discussion papers, an entire national framework may eventually be necessary to address AI-related safety concerns, algorithmic transparency issues, machine-learning bias, and to mitigate against the use of AI in criminal offences. Lessons on regulation may also be learnt from the risk-based European AI Act the EU AI bill approaches regulation based on the varying level of risks posed by AI rather than focusing on the technology itself. A well-considered and consistent legal framework mated to these concerns would bolster safe AI deployment within India, while avoiding the pitfalls of ad-hoc policy responses. As the incoming Council Chair for the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence, and incumbent G20 Chair, our country is well positioned to guide international best practices on responsible AI use, to foster greater innovation and economic growth.
India’s domestic industry has largely expressed tentative optimism towards the opportunities that AI development may create. India’s IT giants have begun to incorporate generative AI offerings. Even Elon Musk, despite his public skepticism of AI technology, has recently opted to create his own AI-powered startup as a competitor to OpenAI. In summary, anything less than an acceleration of AI development, coupled with assistive regulation, may prove detrimental to India’s long-term national interests.
The authors are independent Delhi-based lawyers