The US Federal Reserve’s hikes will lead RBI to raise rates further
Expect RBI to hike banks’ HTM limit by 4% of book ($84 bn), atop 2.5% in FY21, till FY26 (from…
RBI may shift purchases to the forward market to create room for OMOs to fund GoI’s fiscal deficit. It would…
RBI may cut 75bp in 2020—25bp each before/on April 3, June and October—with high real lending rates hurting growth.
There is a 50bps risk to 1H2020 growth if the COVID-19 infection worsens. FY20 growth will be at 4.9% and…
Budget 2020-21: Net borrowing of Rs 5.4 lakh crore (including T-Bills, and adjusting for buyback) is broadly in line with…
Broadbased slowdown, if Diwali demand remains muted, may shave off 30 bps from BofAML’s existing 6.2% GDP growth forecast for…
Income Tax rate cuts should come only if Diwali demand is weak, there is weak rate-cut transmission by banks and…
The RBI board has transferred Rs 1,760bn, including Rs 526bn of excess capital, to the fisc, up from 2018’s Rs…
Transfer of excess RBI capital to the fisc will not impact liquidity/RBI open market operations (OMO) if it is deployed…
Expect the RBI MPC to roll back at least 25 bps of its cumulative 50 bps rate hike this year…
The MPC has cut its H2FY19 inflation forecast to 2.7-3.2% from 3.9-4.5% and estimated the H1FY20 inflation to be between…
RBI board empowered to opine on policy matters under section 7(2) of RBI Act although it seldom does so.
Looking ahead, expect RBI to be on long hold, although another unsuccessful July 2013-type rate defence of the INR cannot…
Investors should focus on prospective NRI bond issuances rather than the expected RBI MPC’s terminal 25 bps repo rate hike…
Inflationary pressures, inelastic gold and electronics demand and existing FTAs with japan & korea make import-curbing measures less effective.
RBI rate hikes depreciate the ` as FPI equity investments that respond to growth, are far larger than FPI debt…
RBI has finally decided to do an open market operation (OMO) purchase to cool yields. We continue to expect policy…
