Indranil Sen Gupta

Interest rate relief in sight: Expect 25 bps rate cut by February-April

The MPC has cut its H2FY19 inflation forecast to 2.7-3.2% from 3.9-4.5% and estimated the H1FY20 inflation to be between 3.8-4.2% from the Q1FY20 estimate of 4.8% in October

Opinion News

RBI vs Government: Central bank’s reserves are excessive, let a panel examine this

RBI board empowered to opine on policy matters under section 7(2) of RBI Act although it seldom does so.

rbi, banking sector, banking industry News

RBI did well to pause. Here’s what will be more effective than RBI rate hikes in supporting the Rupee

Looking ahead, expect RBI to be on long hold, although another unsuccessful July 2013-type rate defence of the INR cannot be ruled out.

Opinion News

RBI Monetary Policy Review: Rate hike will hurt the Rupee. There is a better option

Investors should focus on prospective NRI bond issuances rather than the expected RBI MPC’s terminal 25 bps repo rate hike to support the INR in this Friday’s policy.

RBI, RBI monetary policy, RBI Monetary Policy Review, RBI rate hike, rupee, rupee value, NRI bonds News

Stabilising rupee: NRI bonds over tariff hikes

Inflationary pressures, inelastic gold and electronics demand and existing FTAs with japan & korea make import-curbing measures less effective.

Opinion News

Recovery mode: RBI OMOs & NRI bonds key to stabilising rupee

RBI rate hikes depreciate the ` as FPI equity investments that respond to growth, are far larger than FPI debt investments that respond to rate differentials

RBI OMO, NRI bonds, FX reserve, FPI flows, RBI rates, BofAML FX, FPI equity investments News

Economic Outlook: RBI’s open market operations to cool yields

RBI has finally decided to do an open market operation (OMO) purchase to cool yields. We continue to expect policy makers to further try to comfort sentiment in the G-sec market.

RBI Monetary Policy, Bonds, RBI, consumer price index, CPI, house rent allowance, HRA, Standard Chartered Bank News

Budget 2018: Policy comfort is the key to lower rates

We believe that the Budget 2018 supports our standing call of playing consumption over investment.

Budget 2018 policy News

Bond markets: Govt could fund fiscal slippage by drawing down its surplus cash balance with RBI

Looking beyond rain shocks, core inflation (adjusted for food, fuel and the Center’s HRA hikes) remains a very reasonable 4% with surplus capacity constraining pricing power.

Bond markets, fund fiscal, fiscal slippage, cash balance, RBI News

Column: Budget 2016 makes case for RBI easing

Budget 2016: With fiscal deficit cut, RBI easing lending rates is sine qua non for recovery

Column: Budget 2016 makes case for RBI easing

Budget prompts lower rates

With the government set on the path of fiscal consolidation, RBI may cut rates

Budget prompts lower rates
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