Indranil Sen Gupta

Articles By Indranil Sen Gupta

20 Articles

RBI’s FX reserves: Shelter from the storm

RBI may shift purchases to the forward market to create room for OMOs to fund GoI’s fiscal deficit. It would need to inject durable liquidity of $45bn in FY21.

rbi, reserve bank of india

RBI-MPC: Fundamental drivers weak, expect cuts ahead

RBI may cut 75bp in 2020—25bp each before/on April 3, June and October—with high real lending rates hurting growth.

Expect Reserve Bank of India to cut 50bps in FY21

There is a 50bps risk to 1H2020 growth if the COVID-19 infection worsens. FY20 growth will be at 4.9% and FY21 at 5.6%

Budget 2020: Divestment target poses risk to achieving fiscal deficit goal

Budget 2020-21: Net borrowing of Rs 5.4 lakh crore (including T-Bills, and adjusting for buyback) is broadly in line with our fiscal deficit projections.

Growth outlook calls for rate-cut in December

Broadbased slowdown, if Diwali demand remains muted, may shave off 30 bps from BofAML’s existing 6.2% GDP growth forecast for FY20. RBI should cut 25 bps in Dec, despite Oct inflation at 4.6%

Growth, Growth outlook, rate cut, December, GDP, GDP growth, SME loans, RBI, Indian economy

Reviving growth: What could spur income tax rate cuts

Income Tax rate cuts should come only if Diwali demand is weak, there is weak rate-cut transmission by banks and govt finds ways to fund the corp tax rate cut.

There is no doubt that a demand-side measure, like the income tax cut, has a more immediate growth impact than a supply-side measure like the corporate tax rate cut

How Bimal Jalan report can be a game-changer if funds are used to recapitalise PSU banks

The RBI board has transferred Rs 1,760bn, including Rs 526bn of excess capital, to the fisc, up from 2018’s Rs 500bn. We expect Delhi to apportion RBI’s transfer between recapitalising PSU banks and fiscal support as budg

Jalan report, RBI, economic capital, PSU banks, Bimal Jalan, Nirmala Sitharaman, RBI excess capital, Jalan committee

Jalan report to help lending rate cuts

Transfer of excess RBI capital to the fisc will not impact liquidity/RBI open market operations (OMO) if it is deployed to recapitalise banks

RBI should cut at least 25 bps in February

Expect the RBI MPC to roll back at least 25 bps of its cumulative 50 bps rate hike this year on February 7 with Governor Das seeing the inflation outlook as ‘benign’.

Interest rate relief in sight: Expect 25 bps rate cut by February-April

The MPC has cut its H2FY19 inflation forecast to 2.7-3.2% from 3.9-4.5% and estimated the H1FY20 inflation to be between 3.8-4.2% from the Q1FY20 estimate of 4.8% in October

RBI vs Government: Central bank’s reserves are excessive, let a panel examine this

RBI board empowered to opine on policy matters under section 7(2) of RBI Act although it seldom does so.

rbi, banking sector, banking industry

RBI did well to pause. Here’s what will be more effective than RBI rate hikes in supporting the Rupee

Looking ahead, expect RBI to be on long hold, although another unsuccessful July 2013-type rate defence of the INR cannot be ruled out.

RBI Monetary Policy Review: Rate hike will hurt the Rupee. There is a better option

Investors should focus on prospective NRI bond issuances rather than the expected RBI MPC’s terminal 25 bps repo rate hike to support the INR in this Friday’s policy.

RBI, RBI monetary policy, RBI Monetary Policy Review, RBI rate hike, rupee, rupee value, NRI bonds

Stabilising rupee: NRI bonds over tariff hikes

Inflationary pressures, inelastic gold and electronics demand and existing FTAs with japan & korea make import-curbing measures less effective.

Recovery mode: RBI OMOs & NRI bonds key to stabilising rupee

RBI rate hikes depreciate the ` as FPI equity investments that respond to growth, are far larger than FPI debt investments that respond to rate differentials

RBI OMO, NRI bonds, FX reserve, FPI flows, RBI rates, BofAML FX, FPI equity investments

Economic Outlook: RBI’s open market operations to cool yields

RBI has finally decided to do an open market operation (OMO) purchase to cool yields. We continue to expect policy makers to further try to comfort sentiment in the G-sec market.

RBI Monetary Policy, Bonds, RBI, consumer price index, CPI, house rent allowance, HRA, Standard Chartered Bank

Budget 2018: Policy comfort is the key to lower rates

We believe that the Budget 2018 supports our standing call of playing consumption over investment.

Budget 2018 policy

Bond markets: Govt could fund fiscal slippage by drawing down its surplus cash balance with RBI

Looking beyond rain shocks, core inflation (adjusted for food, fuel and the Center’s HRA hikes) remains a very reasonable 4% with surplus capacity constraining pricing power.

Bond markets, fund fiscal, fiscal slippage, cash balance, RBI

Column: Budget 2016 makes case for RBI easing

Budget 2016: With fiscal deficit cut, RBI easing lending rates is sine qua non for recovery

Column: Budget 2016 makes case for RBI easing

Budget prompts lower rates

With the government set on the path of fiscal consolidation, RBI may cut rates

Budget prompts lower rates
Income Tax Calculator, Budget 2019, How to Calculate Income Tax


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