World primary energy demand will grow 1.6% a year on an average between 2006 and 2030?an increase of 45%.
This will demand energy-supply investment of $26.3 trillion to 2030 or over $1 trillion per year. Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable?environmentally, economically and socially?they can and must be altered, says the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2008, released by the International Energy Agecny (IEA).
Demand for oil will rise from 85 million barrel daily (mbd) now to 106 mbd in 2030. Demand for coal will increase more than any other fuel in absolute terms, accounting for over a third of the increase in energy use. Modern renewables will grow most rapidly, overtaking gas to become the second-largest source of electricity soon after 2010. China and India will account for over half of incremental energy demand to 2030 while the West Asia emerge as a major new demand centre. The share of the world?s energy consumed in cities will grow from two-thirds to almost three-quarters in 2030, the report says.
WEO 2008?the latest edition of the annual IEA flagship publication?provides detailed analysis to help policy makers around the world assess and address the challenges posed by worsening oil supply prospects, higher energy prices and rising emissions of greenhouse gases.
Almost all of the increase in fossil?energy production occurs in non-OECD countries. Yet the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch that could choke economic recovery, the report says.
?We cannot let the financial and economic crisis delay the policy action that is urgently needed to ensure secure energy supplies and to curtail rising emissions of greenhouse gases. We must usher in a global energy revolution by improving energy efficiency and increasing the deployment of low-carbon energy,? Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of IEA said. In addition to providing a comprehensive update of long-term energy projections to 2030, WEO-2008 takes a detailed look at the prospects for oil and gas production. Oil will remain the world?s main source of energy for many years to come, even under the most optimistic of assumptions about the development of alternative technology. But the sources of oil, the cost of producing it and the prices that consumers will have to pay for it are extremely uncertain. ?One thing is certain?, stated Tanaka, ?while market imbalances will feed volatility, the era of cheap oil is over?.
All of the growth in oil demand, up 106 million barrels daily by 2030 from 85 million barrels daily now, will be from non-OECD countries, with China contributing 43% (9 mbd), India and West Asia 20% each (over 4 million barrels each daily) and other emerging Asian economies most of the rest, the report says.
?Rising imports of oil and gas into OECD regions and developing Asia, together with the growing concentration of production in a small number of countries, would increase our susceptibility to supply disruptions and sharp price hikes. At the same time, greenhouse-gas emissions would be driven up inexorably, putting the world on track for an eventual global temperature increase of up to 6?C?, the report adds.
WEO-2008 also analyses policy options for tackling climate change after 2012, when a new global agreement?to be negotiated at the UN Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen next year?is due to take effect.