The electoral fate of political bigwigs like RJD chief Lalu Prasad, TRS leader Chandrashekhar Rao, former finance minister Yashwant Sinha of the BJP and Union minister Renuka Chowdhury of the Congress will be tested on Thursday when the country to polls in the first phase of these Lok Sabha elections. But the battle in the 124 seats of the first phase is unlikely to give any clear indication of the final outcome.

Also submitting to the electoral test will be debutant Shashi Tharoor in Kerala, veteran Murli Manohar Joshi in Varanasi, UP and NTR?s daughter D Purandeshwari in Andhra.

Polling will be completed in the first phase itself in two major states, Chhattisgarh and Kerala. The Congress-led UDF is the frontrunner in a majority of the 20 seats in Kerala. The LDF, up against severe infighting as well as anti-incumbency, will have to put a tough fight to retain the 19 seats it had won the last time.

In 2004, the verdict in Kerala had defied all predictions, with surprised everyone in several ways. One, for the first time in the history of Kerala or since the elections of 1952, the Congress drew a blank. It lost all seats by a heavy margin, except in Alappuzha constituency. Two, for the first time an NDA candidate got elected in Kerala. Three, the LDF performance was beyond its own expectations. The CPM won 13 seats including an independent from Ernakulam, the CPI three, the Kerala Congress(J) and Janata Dal(Secular) one each.

In Chhattisgarh, the situation is tilted in favour of the ruling BJP led by its ?gentleman chief minister? Raman Singh, who signaled that he was there to stay when he successfully retained power in assembly elections last year. The Congress has been on the backfoot in the state ever since. It will face a tough task in the state?s 11 Lok Sabha seats.

The last Lok Sabha election in 2004 had laid the foundations of BJP dominance in this newly carved out state. The BJP won 10 out of the 11 seats while the Congress had to be content with just one seat ? contested and won by the former chief minister, Ajit Jogi.

Though roughly one-fifth of the total seats in Parliament will go to the hustings in the first phase, political analysts concede the absence of a national mood. That, in fact, may be the prognosis for the subsequent rounds of polling as well in this election, in which a plethora of regional issues has disallowed any single nation-wide agenda. This has resulted in the widely-held sense that regional parties will hold the key to government formation post election.

Pre-poll surveys conducted so far have only confirmed this perception. They give neither the BJP-led NDA nor the Congress-led NDA anywhere near a clear majority. STAR News-AC Nielsen?s latest poll, conducted between March 26 and April 3, gives the UPA 203 seats and the NDA 191. India TV?s survey gives the NDA a marginal lead over the UPA, 187 to 178, making it clear that the support of parties like the SP, RJD and the Left will be critical. Even the Week/C-voter survey, which puts the UPA much ahead at 234 seats compared to 186 for the NDA, actually includes 32 estimated MPs of the SP as part of the tally.