Of late, accounts on comparisons between India and China in terms of growth rates, their sustainability given the domestic and external factors and impact on global power equations have become legion. This is natural given the near double digit economic growth rates that these two Asian countries had posted in the near past and despite the recent financial tsunami.
Such comparisons did exist in the past, viz, on how the Qing Dynasty in China contributed to nearly a quarter of the global GDP in the 19th century, while Mughal India garnered nearly 14% of the global GDP. Nationalistic historiographies in both these countries also critiqued these two countries? decline in the late 19th century due to the onslaught of the European expansion ? in the form of Opium Wars in China or outright British colonialism in India. Later interpretations noted the 20th century reorganizations, dubbed as ?creative destruction? in the book under review (page 327), in independent India and ?liberated? China?predominantly inward looking and geared towards building self-reliant societies.
As both China and India chart out their prospects in the light of their respective entries into the globalisation process, new interpretations of their growth trajectories have become inevitable recently. These were highlighted by the Goldman Sachs report of 2003 based on capital accumulation and productivity trends in Brazil, Russia, India and China till 2050 and in United States National Intelligence Council?s 2020 Project on ?Mapping the Global Future? released in 2004. The World Bank sponsored 2007 report on ?Dancing with Giants? further identified the upward growth trajectory of these countries.
Overall, several of these studies compared the strengths and weaknesses of both China and India?although opinion is divided on the long-term sustainability of socio-economic growth in these countries. Some have argued that China had relatively overtaken Indian in many respects?higher economic growth rates for more than two decades based on productivity and capital and technology absorption, expanding infrastructure facilities human resources improvements in health care, education and other sectors. Several of these studies adopt a top-down approach. Others have been more cautious on the long term prospects of these countries. The book under review distinguishes itself by offering a bottom-up approach on the subject and evaluates in a more comprehensive manner the prospects of India and China. Significantly, Jha underlines the long-term global policy implications of such rise of India and China and soberly argues that India needs to steer away from trouble with China (page19).
Growth vs equity
An accomplished author and journalist, Jha is no novice to the subject?having written extensively on these countries. What distinguish Jha with other accounts on the subject are the relative objectivity, depth and sweep that he brings to the subject. He does not equate growth with that of equity, although for the Chinese this is an important aspect of economic strategy?indeed dubbed by many as part of the ?GDP obsession?. Nevertheless, the Chinese point to the close connection between the two. For instance, according to the estimates of Zhou Tianying of Central Communist Party School for every one percent drop in economic growth rate costs Chinese nearly eight million jobs. Also, Jha is sceptical whether the growth trajectories of India and China remain on an upward curve in future given the lopsided development of the socio-economic and political institutions in these countries (page 327).
Jha further argues that despite following parallel and ?non-competing tracks? of globalisation (page 30), China and India do not display major differences in their overall performances (page 25). On the contrary, they both exhibit several similarities in their transition from autarchic to capitalist market economies, viz, concerted efforts to usurp power by two groups of investors?intermediate regime in India and by the ?predatory? communist party cadres in China.
Another major argument that Jha proposes is that the Chinese and Indian economic growth rates are not unilineal in progression but faced severe recessions such as in 1997-2002. He argued that the pitfalls of the 2008 financial crisis should be traced back to several years before in these countries, although he considers China?s swift response of providing $586 million in stimulus packages could lead to further political discontent in the country (p.339).
On the whole, it is an intellectual treat that Jha offers in his nearly 300 pages of analyses of developments in India and China in the last six decades, although the sub title of the book need more elaboration and analysis. Again, his categorisation of the period of early 1990s as an Age of Contentment (page 130) needs more corroboration while terming the tumultuous events related to the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989 mainly as a result of urban discontent (page 129) calls for further research.
?The reviewer is Professor in Chinese Studies, JNU, Delhi