Ahead of the October-November assembly polls, delimitation has caused a Catch-22 situation for at least 41 sitting MLAs in Bihar and some ministers in the Nitish Kumar government.
Also, post-delimitation, upper caste voters could have a decisive say in 72 assembly segments instead of the previous number of 52 seats. This could be one reason for the renewed efforts by both the NDA and RJD-LJP combine to woo upper voters of late. The BJP and Congress have welcomed upper caste defectors like Umashankar Singh, Akhilesh Singh and Sudhakar Singh. The JD(U)?s growing discomfort with Prabhunath Singh and Lallan Singh challenging Nitish Kumar on their respective turfs, Saran and Munger respectively, also has to do with delimitation having changed caste equations.
Delimitation has caused strains in the JD(U)-BJP relationship; the two parties have held at least a dozen meetings on swapping 10 seats. Both parties had to drop three sitting MLAs each because of delimitation.
With an additional Bankipore seat having been carved out in Patna town, a deadlock has been created between the partners. While the BJP holds all three Patna seats?Patna Sahib, Kumrar and Digha (all new names)?it is also eyeing newly carved out Bankipore because of its large Kayastha, Bhumihar and Brahmin population. More importantly, the BJP wants the seat to accommodate Vivek Thakur, son of state BJP chief CP Thakur. But the JD(U) is adamant on getting at least one seat in Patna.
A top BJP leader said: ?It is beyond the state unit to resolve the deadlock. Now our central leadership is looking after this matter?.
The RJD has its own share of delimitation woes. The state chief of the party, Abdul Bari Siddiqui, will now contest from Alinagar (Darbhanga) instead of the previously existing Bahera seat in the same district. Siddiqui is wary because of the depleting Muslim vote in Alinagar. Another RJD leader Lalit Yadav had to move to Darbhanga Rural after his Manigachi seat ceased to exist. Delimitation has made LJP MLA Izhar Ahmed change parties to get a ticket. Having lost the Ghanshyampur seat to delimitation, the LJP was finding it difficult to accommodate him. He joined hands with Nitish Kumar and got the newly-carved Kauraboram seat in Darbhanga. LJP chief Paswan said: ?We are not surprised at Ahmed leaving us. Blame it on delimitation?.
Besides these, over a dozen sitting and former MLAs have changed parties because of delimitation. These political crossovers could continue till the release of the final lists.
Parties have had to rearrange their electoral calculations on another count. Congress spokesperson Umakant Singh said: ?Even though there are only 16% upper caste votes, they will play almost a decisive role in triangular and quadrilateral contests?.
With the Congress possibly emerging as a new pole in the contest, Lalu and Nitish may have all the more reason to get restless.
The RJD-LJP combination seems to have got the message. While the RJD has traditionally banked on the tested Muslim-Yadav combination, the LJP gave tickets to 18 upper caste candidates in its first list. The BJP is trying to supplement partner JD(U)?s EBC-plus-Muslim math with its share of upper caste support.