They are the first major elections in India after the 2009 Lok Sabha polls and the Congress should be singing its way home. Three governments appear to be back in their kitty; they have overcome incumbency fatigue. In fact, analysts were so bored with the results that the discussion immediately moved to questions around the opposition space and whether Rajnath Singh would once again need unconventional methods to attempt a political take-off. (He urged the pilot to take off using jeep floodlights in Dumka two days ago!) The two larger states that went to the polls?Maharashtra, the second largest in the country and Haryana, now virtually a large megapolis adjacent to Delhi?will again have Congress-led governments. The breaking news though is the hesitation with which the Haryana voter has allowed the Congress to slip past. The voter in Maharashtra has delivered a more decisive mandate for the Congress and the NCP than was anticipated ?the regional ally NCP had been written off before the polls, but it has done well, and gained seats as compared to last time. The Congress, the top-dog too, did well as was expected. So, despite a fractured and scattered political map as far as candidates went, the voter, as has been the case many times before, has given the result a shape and form that translates into a stable government.
Haryana (where the Congress did brilliantly in 2009, securing 9 out of 10 Lok Sabha seats) has seen a chastening of the Congress. While the state was said to have done scintillatingly, with statistics showing Haryana on the top of the table under several heads, clearly, it appears that deep divisions in the party and the alienation of sizeable sections of Jat support because of the loss of Congressman Bhajan Lal in 2004, took their toll. Now, it remains to be seen how far the anti-Hooda groups succeed in pushing for a change of guard. In Maharashtra?s case too, given the rate at which the ?high-command? is being invoked, whether by first-time MLAs like Amit Deshmukh (son of former CM Vilasrao Deshmukh) or others, there is bound to be a sprint for the top spot.
The foremost question being asked is how the Congress managed to buck ?anti-incumbency? in both states, especially Maharashtra, where it has baggage from ten years of government?the burden of 26/11 and a game of musical chairs played out between more than three CMs in the period. But the ruling dispensation moved smartly last year after the Mumbai attacks and managed to?via the induction of low-key but active CM Ashok Chavan?whitewash the ?old? feeling.
The other part of the story worth telling is the urban seat story. While the MNS had helped the Congress a great deal in the Lok Sabha, the Shiv Sena has managed to improve from that. The groundswell of support the Congress enjoyed in the urban heartland last time seems to have been challenged. Even in Haryana (incidentally, heavily urbanised, about 45% urban) and then in Faridabad and Gurgaon ?the urban segments?the Congress candidates have been pipped by independent candidates. While in Haryana, the ?problem? for the ruling government may not be as complicated, in Mumbai the swing away from the Congress?given that there were thorny issues related to migrants that the party refused to sort out?and a resurgent Sena/MNS means trouble, especially if the Congress continues to be equivocal.
What the voter has also emphasised in this election is how it doesn?t always get manipulated by alliances or get diverted by a ?scatter?. Maharashtra, which had a vision-less, but on paper, a well-organised opposition (BJP?s oldest alliance in the country is with the Shiv Sena) refused to go any other way than the way it wanted to take, and in Haryana, where the sniggers were reserved for the opposition, Om Prakash Chautala has risen phoenix-like. Though the INLD was the first party in the state to have come out with a manifesto and announce its candidates.
Arunachal Pradesh has 60 seats, and that is where it appears the Congress?s biggest opponent was China! It has done very well there despite large-scale trouble over seats, the NCP and Congress not fighting together and rebels walking over to the Trinamool?s side.
Social equations have played a big role in shaping the verdict, with Jats and others in Haryana, the minority vote, solidly sticking to the Congress/NCP along with the Marathi-Mumbaikar vote. But another interesting development has been the phrase ?development? being uttered enthusiastically in different accents and being conjugated in different languages. So while the Congress needs to review where it has lost its five-year-old touch with the urban vote, the fact that the debate was never at any point overtly based on identity calls seems to again help the Congress play to its catch-all umbrella strengths, centred on the politics of patronage.
But this very fact of not evoking identity is what has set the alarm bells ringing in the opposition BJP. They have fallen between two stools?they kept out Narendra Modi, the fiery Hindutva campaigner from next door, and others like Varun Gandhi, in the hope that this would prevent a ?ganging up? of minorities and Dalits towards the Congress-NCP. However, they failed to turn into a genuine non-bigoted, conservative opposition, losing the opportunity to use the anger against a poorly run state government, rural discontent and high prices. The only thing that must be making them feel content is that they seem to have breached the junior partner barrier. After having played ?Junior? to the Shiv Sena?s roar, they can now, even if by a slim margin, claim at least to have won more seats.
The other, much commented upon factor in these polls was that of several fiefdoms and open inauguration of dynasties of all varieties. The jury is still out on whether people get charmed by claims of paternity/maternity or revolted by them. They seem largely indifferent, and like Sachin Tendulkar, seem to have judiciously played each ball on merit. So while Chautala, Shinde, Munde and Deshmukh?s progeny have had a good run, the late Pramod Mahajan?s hasn?t.
But then, something that is not quite being remarked upon now, is the ?nephew factor? of which one may have seen beginnings. Two stalwarts?Sharad Pawar and Balasaheb Thackeray?said at various times in this election?s campaign, that it was retirement time. Both, incidentally, have seen not progeny, but nephews come into their own. Ajit Pawar?s victory from Baramati and Raj Thackeray?s interesting debut may probably be the two factors that will colour the political landscape in some time. We are all ears.