When Bihar began voting on April 10, the question did not figure on the minds of pollsters. The first two phases featured constituencies where the BJP was expected to do well and Lalu Prasad Yadav and his RJD were not really factors.
But Lalu?s Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) combination is believed to have come into play strongly in the third and fourth phases and the RJD is expected to push forward even in the last two phases that are yet to vote.
And so the questions are now being asked: Is Lalu blocking a ?Modi surge? in Bihar because the BJP has not been able to sustain the so-called ?Modi wave? despite a series of Modi rallies? Have old caste and community calculations Bihar is notorious for come into play again?
Hints to those answers may lie in Lalu?s relaxed and upbeat demeanour during these polls, with supporters claiming that they have never seen him in such a positive mood in nine years.
After the electoral drubbing in 2009 and 2010, Lalu had reconciled to the ?winning social combination? of Nitish and the BJP against his M-Y combination. But Nitish leaving the NDA changed that.
As the JD(U) quit the NDA, Nitish?s advisors had calculated that EBCs and a section of the Muslims could give the party a winning social combination. But that claim is being tested on the ground and the signs are not encouraging. Lalu, who was lying low for five years and looking for an opening, seems to have found one. ?It is such political irony that Nitish tried so hard to create a constituency and is still not sure about it. Lalu, who went to jail and whose party split, looks to have got it automatically only because the JD(U) and BJP are no longer together with that wining social combination?, said a JD(U) leader, adding that no poll survey was giving them more than five seats.