Tamil Nadu, with a contingent of 13 ministers in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA ) government, has had about Rs 1 lakh crore investments from the Centre and substantial foreign direct investments during the last five years. Thanks to these massive economic gains, the shipping, road transport and highways minister TR Baalu, who steered about Rs 55,000 crore investments to the state, hopes the coming Lok Sabha election to be ?cake walk for UPA in Tamil Nadu?.

But the ongoing clashes between the Sri lankan government and the LTTE have gravely affected the state and has shattered the hopes of Baalu.

Over Rs 1 lakh crore of fresh investments, besides Rs 30,000 crore foreign direct investment in the automobile and Information and communication technology sectors, were made in the state during the last five years in infrastructure (railways, ports, roads and power), manufacturing, healthcare and social sectors. No other state might have had such a large share in the central kitty as Tamil Nadu.

Investment in the shipping and ports sectors, including the Sethusamudram project and the National Maritime University, in the highways and roads sector, major expansion works of the railway network, expansion of the Salem Steel Plant, third unit of the Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd, new power projects by public sector undertakings like NTPC, NLC, the national Siddha University near Chennai, a national medical institute at Salem and large-scale benefits from the various central social welfare schemes are the notable among them.

The last fortnight alone saw foundation laying ceremonies for power, port and manufacturing sector projects from Ennore in the North to Tuticorin in the South in the presence of number of ministers like Pranab Mukherjee and P Chidambaram.

But the political parties, including some like the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) with two ministers in the Centre, vie with one another to highlight the `failure? and ?inaction? of the UPA government in bringing about a ceasefire in Lanka and isolate the Sri Lankan government.

With 40/40 score of Lok Sabha seats, including the one in Pondicherry, and the strategic leadership of the DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi, Tamil Nadu played a key role in the UPA government with five Cabinet ministers, holding important portfolios, and nine ministers of state, including one from Pondicherry.

Another opportunity for the repeat of this show should be considered as a natural prerogative and Baalu?s hope is based on this assumption. But the going appears to be tough for two reasons: the enduring shadows of the Lanka crisis and the dismemberment of the UPA.

The Sri Lankan Tamil Protection Forum, which has leaders of PMK, MDMK, CPI and some minor parties as members are on warpath with the Centre and DMK. Even BJP has sharpened its attack on the Centre accusing it of inaction to save the Tamils in Sri Lanka. The pro-LTTE and Sri Lankan ethnic Tamil sentiment is riding very high in the state and it may turn against the Congress and its allies at the polling booths.

The UPA in 2004 was a formidable force with Congress, DMK, PMK, the Left parties and MDMK. It swept the polls. In 2009 UPA is already split and may split further. Left parties and MDMK has already left the alliance with no signs of return. The PMK, with two Union ministers, is part of UPA but is out of the DMK-led United Progressive Alliance in Tamil Nadu.

Congress, DMK, PMK, Muslim League and some smaller parties like VCK can still make a powerful combination and manage to win in a majority of seats, though not all the 40. But PMK founder leader S Ramadoss is yet to reveal his plans.

Meanwhile Congress has initiated poll preparations. Its high command representative for Tamil Nadu, Gulam Nabi Azad, held consultations with district and grass-root level leaders. He is also meeting the DMK leadership. DMK and AIADMK have announced teams for seat-sharing talks with allies. AIADMK has the Left parties and MDMK in its fold now. Some of the minor parties also may join it. BJP, which held the hand of AIADMK in 2004 and the 2006 Assembly elections is now alone.