Call it perfect timing or sheer coincidence: global consultancy firm Ernst & Young released its latest report on Gujarat titled ??Gujarat: Beyond the Obvious?? on the same day that the Election Commission announced the dates for forthcoming elections in the state.
The report, not surprisingly, has lauded the state government for its commendable work in sectors ranging from education to culture, to infrastructure and investment. It goes on to elaborate that the Gujarat government has implemented 72 initiatives in as many months which have generated a remarkable socio-economic transformation in the state.
And it is this developmental track record which Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi will use as a poll plank this time round: unlike in 2002, which saw communalism emerge as the main emotive election issue, 2007 may be about good governance.
Says a senior BJP state leader, ??Narendrabhai has shown the world how to run a state efficiently. His achievements with regard to good governance have been grudgingly acknowledged by surveys conducted even by the ruling United Progressive Alliance coalition at the Centre.??
That Gujarat has risen phoenix-like after being battered in quick succession first by the devastating Bhuj earthquake of 2001 and then by the post-Godhra communal carnage of 2002 to top the country?s investment sweepstakes as one of the most preferred investment destinations under five year?s of Modi?s rule cannot be disputed.
That, other than his ?autocratic handling? of his party and the ?iron hand? with which he has ruled, no other charge has been able to tarnish his ?clean and honest image?, is another factor which party workers feel will go in Modi?s favour. ??I don?t think anti-incumbency will play a role in the Gujarat polls for the simple reason that the state has shown growth and prosperity in a tangible way,?? said another BJP leader.
But what about inner-party dissidence that has reared its head? Modi loyalists are quick to dismiss those who are raising decibels in criticising Modi?s style, including erstwhile BJP heavyweights, like former CM Keshubhai Patel, Suresh Mehta, vitriolic RSS leader Pravin Togadia, Sanjay Joshi and Gordhan Zadaphia. ??Even if they decide to contest independently or join hands with the Congress, they won?t be able to dent Modi?s image. After all, what will they tell the masses – that the CM?s only sin is that he rules with an iron hand? That?s no sin for the public as long as the state prospers and people are happy,?? he says.
It?s not as if only disgruntled elements in the BJP are deserting their party leader. There are Congress leaders who have dared to defy their party and have publicly heaped praises on Modi before switching sides.
That being the case, Poll 2007 in Gujarat may turn out to be more of a keenly fought contest between Modi?s loyalists and his detractors within the BJP rather than between BJP and the Congress. Agrees a state Congress leader, ??Much as I would wish otherwise, I doubt if we?ll be able to provide Modi with a real challenge.??
It may be mentioned that in 2002, the BJP virtually swept the results bagging 127 of the total 182 seats. December 23, the day the results for Poll 2007 are to be announced, is unlikely to alter the picture dramatically as things stand now.