Next Monday?s papers will carry reports of many economic numbers which will be released over the weekend. Quick Estimates for GDP in 2001-02, GDP for the Jan-March 2002 quarter, and the balance-of-payments for 2001-02. I?ll take a chance and give you a preview. The QE is likely to raise the GDP growth estimate from 5.4 per cent, made in February, up to 6 per cent. For the Jan-March 2002 quarter, the GDP growth estimate would be upwards of 7.5 per cent. If that is not enough for people to sit up and take notice, the BoP is likely to show, for the first time in decades, a positive current account balance; or at worst, a negative number approaching zero.

Will we be excited and celebrating over these numbers? The fact that it is possible to take an educated guess on just how strong these key numbers are likely to be, is testimony that others too are wise to it. Would it be correct to surmise that the markets have factored it in ? into its present level of depressed prices and quiescent activity? The answer is both, yes and no. Those who track economic data should see the numbers coming. But the serial mess at the level of political management since March 2002, peaking with worries as to how transient the US-brokered peace will be, has made stomachs queasy, in many more ways, than one. But perhaps, war is off the agenda and business will soon be back to the usual: Spiteful ill-will and general all-round nastiness initiated by Pakistan and duly reciprocated.

What then could be the dividends of the good economic numbers, and a season where business takes precedence over armed conflict? For one, the domestic economy has been stirring for some time now. The demand for finance is up, and plenty of solid investment plans appear lined up for offer. Non-food credit, even after adjusting for the huge spike caused by the merger of ICICI into ICICI Bank, has grown 16 per cent year-on-year for the fortnight ending May 31, 2002 ? the strongest showing since 2000-01. On a year-to-date since March, non-food credit has grown by over Rs 11,000 crore till May 31, 2002 ? by far the strongest out-turn in many years.

For another, in the developed world, capital is restless. While no numbers are available, it is clear that loads of funds have left US equity markets, causing the dollar to drop against the euro and yen ever since April. The continued slide, expected by many to go as low as $1.05 to the euro, will moderate the demand for imports and push exports, but it is unlikely that the US current account deficit will fall much below $350 billion in 2002. With earnings dropping faster than stock prices, and the continuing bad odour from Enron, Andersen and Tyco, US equities are, and will be, downward bound; and a gaping federal fiscal stance will drive yields for higher tenor bonds upwards. This potent combination will increasingly make US dollar assets an uncomfortable bet to hang on to.

But European equity markets are not too great an opportunity, and bond markets have already become pricey. In Japan, restructuring stories will offer opportunities, but with a strong yen, its economic prospects will likely take a beating. Korea was last year?s great story. And just how much more can commodities ? gold, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and oil futures take? Most footloose capital will still transit the Atlantic and north Pacific, but some will make it to more exotic destinations.

If the travel advisories go by month end, we have a good investment story. And if the privatisation drive continues as it has been going, that will make it a veritable treat. It will lift the spirits of domestic investors, and cause asset prices to buoy; enable a wide range of reconstituted 21st century businesses, lean and muscular, very different from the slow-moving behemoths who had made the first splash in post-reform India, to access capital markets ? at home and overseas. The transit to a more purposive expansion path seems to be a possibility.

Saumitra Chaudhuri is economic advisor to ICRA (Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency) and editor of Money and Finance, the ICRA bulletin