The southwest monsoon has gathered steam and, in the last few weeks, most parts of the country have received satisfactory rainfall. If the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is correct, rains will continue to gather pace, further reducing the cumulative shortfall for the June to September season, which stood at -4% until August 11. Between June 1 and August 11, India received 532.2 millimetres of rainfall, as against a normal shower of 557.2 millimetres. That?s the good part. But there lies a more worrying story in the eastern parts of the country. Large swathes of farm land in Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Assam and eastern Madhya Pradesh have received very little rainfall so far, with rainfall shortfalls (below normal) of 32%, 32%, 48%, 43% and 32%, respectively. And the effects are visible. Until last week, paddy (de-husked rice) sowing was down by about 10.43% in West Bengal?the country?s largest rice producing state and down by around 5.19% in Bihar.
These numbers might not sound alarming but are significant. Last year?s uneven rainfall across the country had its most telling impact on eastern India, pulling down annual rice production by almost 10% to 89.13 million tonnes. Not only that, the drought in eastern India also had a cascading impact on the availability of many coarse cereals, fruits and vegetables, contributing in pushing up food inflation. Monsoon deficiency in the East is, however, unlikely to have an impact on total kharif paddy output, and procurement is good. Production in Punjab, Haryana and southern India, coupled with huge rice stocks estimated to be in excess of around 25 million tonnes, would help cap any price flare-up or shortages in supply. But the signals are ominous?28 districts in Bihar, eight in West Bengal and 12 in Jharkhand have already been declared drought-hit. The ground situation could become worrying if rainfall remains deficient for the next 15-20 days. The talk of a shift in the monsoon pattern in eastern India and its impact on agriculture should be a wake-up call for the government. Already, in West Bengal, farmers are being advised to grow pulses and oilseeds in place of paddy during the kharif season to minimise the impact of insufficient rains. It is here that the central government?s Rs 400 crore grant for the second Green Revolution could come in handy.