Exports slid 21.7% in February to 13-year low of $11.91 billion against $15.22 billion a year ago, as global demand dampened due to financial turmoil. This was the fifth consecutive monthly decline in export.
Imports also dropped 23.3% during the month $16.82 billion from $21.93 billion, reducing the trade deficit to $4.91 billion from $6.1 billion in January, the government data showed on Wednesday.
?During April-February we exported goods worth $156 billion. In March exports might have been $12 billion. So in the entire fiscal, our exports would be somewhere around $168 billion-$170 billion against $162 billion last year,? commerce secretary G K Pillai told FE. The government had set export target of $200 billion. ?When the world is slowing, we would also slow down. Japan?s exports has slowed 49%, we are better off with a fall of 21%,? he added.
On the outlook for 2009-10, Pillai said, ?This year too exports are likely to be $170 billion. The first six months would be difficult and the growth would be 20-21% as in the first half of last year our exports grew 35%. But after September growth would be higher due to base effect,? he added.
For April-February 2008-09, exports grew by 7.3% to $156.59 billion from the same period last year, while imports were 19.1% up at $271.68 billion from $228.08 billion in 2007.
Exports started falling from October last year, after the bankruptcy of US-based investment banker Lehman Brothers mid-September shot off a financial crisis and hit demand for goods and services across economies. Global trade will plunge 9% in 2009, the most since World War II, the World Trade Organisation said last week.
The slowdown has turned various nations protectionist in their policy stance. WTO director general Pascal Lamy on Wednesday warned that the global crisis has ?low-intensity? protectionism risks disrupting global trade and called on leaders from Group of 20 strong economies in London to prevent it.
Lamy said he doesn?t believe there is a risk that the global economic slowdown will spark ?high-intensity protectionism lilke in the 1930s,? because there is more ?discipline? today. ?But the risk is having a low-intensity protectionism that takes advantage of the flexibility offered? under existing WTO rules on global trade, he added.
Declining exports will slow economic growth in Asia to the weakest since the 1998 financial crisis, the Asian Development Bank said on Tuesday, cutting its forecast for the second time in four months. The World Bank has also said that world economy would contract 1.7% in 2009 against 0.9% predicted initially. In 2008-09, India?s economy is estimated to have grown 7.1% during 2008-09, lower than the average of 9% in the last three financial years.
In order to shield the country from global recession, the government and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have announced various stimuli, injecting around Rs 4,30,480 crore through tax cuts and reduction in interest rates. RBI has lowered the repo rate five times during the last financial year to an all-time low of 5%, besides slashing the reserve requirement to 5%.
Exports and imports contracted in February even in rupee terms. Exports dipped 3% to Rs 58,685 crore from Rs 60,476 crore in the same month in 2007, while imports shrunk 4.9% to Rs 82,872 crore.
Oil imports during the month dipped to $4.04 billion from $7.71 billion. India?s oil imports during April-February were at $89.68 billion, 26.8% up from $70.7 billion in the year-ago period. Non-oil imports during the month were estimated at $12.77 billion from $14.22 billion in February 2008.
After growing at an impressive 30.9% in the first half of the fiscal, exports slumped for the first time in October registering a fall of 12.1% to $12.8 billion. The fall in November and December were at 9.9% and 1.1% respectively, while the dip in January was about 16%.