Militarily, said Union Home Minister P Chidambaram referring to the LTTE, they have reached their endgame. In electoral terms, that could well be the fate of Chidambaram?s party in Tamil Nadu.
After a gap of 18 years?a period that saw five general elections and three Assembly elections?the conflict in Sri Lanka between the Government forces and the guerillas of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam is back in focus in Tamil Nadu. And according to observers, the development will primarily harm the interests of the Congress that has fielded 16 candidates for this Parliamentary election on May 13.
Till a few months ago, the Congress was seen as a prized electoral possession because it had a traditional votebank and also because aligning with it carried the prospect of sharing power at the Centre. Arch rivals AIADMK and DMK wanted an alliance with it and the PMK wanted it to lead a different alliance altogether.
Now, the Congress finds itself at the receiving end of not just politicos and chauvinists but also a motley crew of rights activists, lawyers, students, traders and women?s organisations.
?The anti-Hindi imposition agitation reduced the Congress to the fringes of state politics till the advent of coalition politics. Even now, the party is a minor partner whichever alliance it is in,? said a political observer, drawing parallels to the present pro-Tamil sentiment that is developing into an anti-Congress wave.
If assassinating Rajiv Gandhi was the historic blunder that the Tigers made, it is the end of the Tigers that is changing the game for the Congress. Even as the rebels reach their end of history, the real cause behind decades of violence and thousands of deaths is now in the spotlight.
Since Rajiv Gandhi?s assassination, many in Tamil Nadu saw the issue in Lanka as either a rebels? war or a separatists? fight. But for the past few weeks, CDs and emails with images from the war field have been making the rounds in Tamil Nadu.
These are frames of misery. They show the dead: some purportedly at the hands of the Lankan army, others due to lack of adequate facilities at refugee camps.
The local Congress was rattled by the CDs, along with the campaign by rival parties and fringe organisations that accused the Centre of lending covert support to the Lankan army. The party approached Chief Electoral Officer Naresh Gupta with the demand that the circulation of the CDs be banned, who in turn forwarded it to the State DGP. After several raids and seizures, there is now a case in the Madras High Court, seeking permission to release the CD to public.
All Opposition parties, including the stridently anti-LTTE AIADMK, have adopted an aggressive position on the issue, flaying the DMK and the Congress for their alleged indifference. All want a piece of the pro-Lanka votes.
Though some among the pro-Lankan Tamil and pro-LTTE parties explored the potential of a platform based on the issue in the beginning of the year, there were not many takers for an alliance without the DMK, AIADMK or Congress. In the later months, these parties gravitated towards different alliances: MDMK and CPI decided to continue their alliances with AIADMK, while VCK remained a part of DMK-led alliance.
As the pro-Lanka bloc got split between the alliances, outfits like Periyar Dravida Kazhagam and parties like MDMK are focussing their energies on the 16 constituencies where the Congress is contesting.
Ahead of a crucial election, the war in Lanka has left the Congress bleeding; ironically, what could deal the final blow is the end of the LTTE.