It?s not the voting that?s democracy; it?s the counting,? said Sir Tom Stoppard. So, while we wait, for the just concluded Assembly elections results in Assam and the polling to begin in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Pondicherry, an overview of the profile of the people the electorate is voting for in states, in collaboration with the Empowering India project by the Liberty Institute, may prove to be of interest.
While the Prime Minister and his wife, both registered voters in the Dispur district of Assam, decided against exercising their franchise in the Assembly elections, the second phase of polling went off fairly glitch-free, with a voter turnout of nearly 70%, marginally lower than the 76% turnout in 2006. Assam is an exception amongst the four states in terms of women?s representation, which increased by 1.6 percentage points to 8.3%, as opposed to the other states where the percentage as well as the number of women candidates declined. In Tamil Nadu, where the percentage of women has decreased to a measly 4.7% of all candidates, interestingly, the AIADMK only gave 9 of 152 seats to women, a drop from 23 women in 2006?this when the party is led by Jayalalithaa! Even the DMK has a better record?they?ve put up 9 women but that?s out of 109 candidates, making their representation numbers slightly better. With such poor showings, it is hardly astonishing that the Parliament has yet to pass the Women?s Reservation Bill, which proposes to reserve 33% of all seats in the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabhas for women.
Tamil Nadu also has the distinction of having the richest candidates amongst the four states going to the polls, with average declared assets of R1.6 crore, a 179% growth. The DMK candidates saw the fastest acceleration in their wealth at a whopping 875% and had an average asset value of R8.1 crore. The AIADMK were several points behind at R3.7 crore, an increase of 600%. West Bengal, by contrast, were the poorest, with average assets of only R20.5 lakh?the CPM showed the smallest increase in assets even though it has been in power for 35 years, while the Trinamool candidates? wealth grew by 183%. Although the average asset of a candidate in Assam was R52 lakh, the richest hopeful, belonging to the Indian National Congress, had R50 crore and the poorest, from the CPI(M), had only R401. Well, declared assets, anyway. Contrary to intuition, a trend observed across the board is that being an incumbent does not necessarily make one richer (except in Tamil Nadu).
It is somewhat difficult to fathom how individuals can declare wealth worth several crores and yet not have a PAN card. But this is true for over 50% candidates across the four states. While Assam had the highest PAN card declaration rate of 64% in 2011, up from 34% in 2006, over two-thirds of the candidates did not have or reveal their card numbers in Kerala. Interestingly, Kripanath Singha, an independent candidate from Matagari Naxalbari constituency, is the richest amongst the first phase candidates, with a declared wealth of R2.2 crore, but does not have a PAN card. Purendu Ray, from the Mekliganj constituency with only R500 to his name and the distinction of being the poorest candidate in this phase, possesses a PAN number. In Kerala, of 765 candidates, there are 71 who have declared assets worth over a crore, yet 23 of these 71 either don?t have a card or haven?t declared it.
Now for the most honoured distinction of all amongst potential members of legislative assemblies?criminal records. Good news first. Assam, at 8% of all candidates, had the lowest percentage of candidates with a past record or legal proceedings in progress against them. However, Kerala, it seems, has a penchant for men in striped pyjamas, with the percentage of people with criminal records going up from 20% in the 2006 Assembly elections to 25% this year. The Kerala Congress (M) has outdone itself in fielding 53% candidates with criminal records.
So how does this affect the likely election results? According to a study by Poonam Gupta, Icrier, and Arvind Panagriya, Columbia University, of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, candidates who are richer and who have a bigger criminal record are more likely to win. The study also points out, though, that the political party affiliation makes a big difference in states where growth is higher. In low growth states, like Assam and West Bengal, however, individual traits make a big difference. While economists will use the election results to validate or invalidate their models, another truth confronts the electorate?while their chosen representatives will be richer, they will also have more criminal records and barely any will be women.
nikhila.gill@expressindia.com