Perhaps the most remarkable outcome in the elections in Delhi, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh has been the strong performance registered by incumbent governments and parties. Three states have returned incumbent governments to power even if with reduced majorities?even in Rajasthan where the incumbent lost, the opposition hasn?t romped home.
Delhi and Madhya Pradesh are particularly interesting outcomes, which not only vindicate the ruling chief ministers but also indict the opposition in no uncertain terms. In Delhi, Sheila Dikshit won an unprecedented third term for the Congress, bucking some serious anti-incumbency issues?think the BRT chaos, the sealing fiasco, inflation, infighting in the Congress, even 26/11. The Congress victory is an indication of Dikshit?s personal popularity with Delhi voters, and the long run performance of her government in Delhi?despite all the setbacks, Delhiites have concluded that Delhi is a much better place to live in today than ten years ago. Dikshit?s victory is also in no small part due to the projection of an insipid and uninspiring VK Malhotra as the BJP?s chief ministerial candidate.
In Madhya Pradesh the story is the same but the two major parties reversed roles. The BJP bucked serious anti-incumbency issues?the party had 3 CMs in one term, inflation, infighting in the party with a break away by the powerful Uma Bharti. Again, the personal popularity of incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan helped the ruling combine?s cause. They were, of course, helped by the fact that the Congress projected no single Chief Ministerial candidate, and the fact that the Congress suffered seriously from divided leadership in the state.
Still, with a 1-1 scoreline here and 2-2 in the 4 states together (3-2 for Congress including Mizoram), neither the Congress nor the BJP can claim to have mastered, exclusively, the winning formula.
What do these election results mean looking ahead to the general election? After all, many commentators have termed this round of assembly polls as the semi-finals to the final general election. This columnist has a different view?these election results will, at one level, matter only to a small degree. Remember, that the BJP, which in 2003 won 3 of the 4 states convincingly, failed to translate that into a general election win. Why?
For one, these four states contribute only 72 members of parliament out of 543?that is less than the 80 MPs UP elects. So, even if the results of assembly polls in these states mirror themselves in the general election to follow?they did so in 2004 when the BJP won a comfortable majority of seats in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh while the Congress swept Delhi?they may not be an accurate reflection of the results from the rest of the country, not even the electoral outcome of the Hindi heartland.
Also, and this is the second point, these four states have the distinction of usually panning out as bipolar battles between the Congress and the BJP. Just looking at poll results from these states can thus overstate the importance of the Congress and BJP in national politics?note that in the current Lok Sabha these two parties together hold less than 300 of the 543 seats in all. So there is every possibility that even if the parties do well in these states they may both do worse in India as whole. Even in the Hindi heartland, where a majority of seats are concentrated in UP and Bihar , it is the smaller regional and caste based parties which will have greater influence than the Congress and BJP.
The third reason to be cautious about projecting these results on to a general election leads from the second?the importance of small parties. In Rajasthan, there is every indication that the Congress will need the support of small parties and/or independents to form a stable government. Both national parties, it is safe to say, will come nowhere close to simple majority on their own in a general election. So, outside of these states, successful alliances will be the key. Also, while the BSP may have failed to make as big a dent as it might have hoped in these polls, it will still be a major player in the 80 seats in UP.
Overall, the Congress would be happier with these results than the BJP?they have held Delhi, taken Rajasthan and run the BJP close in Chhattisgarh. However, the Congress and the UPA should not get over-confident as they may yet face serious challenges in other states where the Congress or its allies hold majorities in the current Lok Sabha but may face anti-incumbency next time?Maharasthra, Andhra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Haryana are five such states.
That said, there are real (not just arithmetic) lessons to be learnt from these polls?lessons from the voter for political parties. First, Indian voters are not theologically anti-incumbent. If leaders are inspiring and governments perform, they will be voted in for second and third terms. Second, voters have shown a greater degree of maturity and patience on pressing issues like inflation and terrorism than the political class has. If politicians expect knee-jerk reactions from voters on issues, that isn?t going to happen so easily. Voters have chosen to judge governments over a five (or ten) year time horizon rather than simply a last five month horizon. The parties and coalitions which imbibe these lessons more than others, will win in 2009.
?dhiraj.nayyar@expressindia.com