Three years ago, the voters of Uttar Pradesh gave Mayawati?s Bahujan Samaj Party something that they hadn?t given any other political formation in the decade and a half preceding May 2007?a clear mandate to govern India?s largest and, at least on some parameters, poorest state.
And while the BSP had its roots, and initial success, as a party single-mindedly seeking greater political mobilisation and representation for dalits, the victory in the assembly elections of 2007 had the backing of a broader ?rainbow? coalition that included upper castes, dalits and muslims. Mayawati, therefore, along with a mandate to govern, had also been presented an opportunity to move beyond the narrow caste considerations that had plagued politics and government in UP since the end of the 1980s.
Three years on, as the BSP celebrates 25 years in existence by, among other things, presenting UP?s chief minister with garlands made of hard currency, it?s easy to see how Mayawati has squandered a great opportunity?not just for the state she governs, but also for herself and her party.
Of course, there is nothing irrational about Mayawati?s often unaesthetic display of wealth and power, whether it is being draped in a garland of 1,000-rupee notes or commissioning statues of herself at multiple spots across UP. These are, in fact, tactical ploys aimed for the consumption of a particular social group?dalits. The BSP and Mayawati believe that anything that makes a prominent display of the party?s empowerment and the leader?s empowerment is a wider symbol of the entire dalit community?s empowerment.
To an extent, this is true. Dalits across UP have spoken on record about how harassment has declined and dignity imparted in Mayawati?s reign as CM. But the marginal benefit of erecting statues or images of leaders being garlanded in wealth in helping this perfectly justified cause of dalit empowerment is likely to be small at best. Overall, it may even be negative, given that this will put off a significant section of non-dalit voters who may have otherwise voted for BSP.
Mayawati is too shrewd a politician not to know this. But her insistence on falling back on crude symbolism is a tacit admission of the failure of her administration to satisfy the broad coalition that brought her to power in the first place. Now, her strategy for the next assembly election in 2010 seems to be a desperate bid to consolidate at least all the dalit votes around BSP. But that may not be good enough given the Congress?s recent resurgence in UP and its growing appeal across different caste and religious groups. Which probably explains the Mayawati administration?s subtle bid to permit some limited communal tension in Bareilly to send some Congress voters into the BJP?s fold, thus splitting the vote against the BSP.
The route that Mayawati is trundling down now is very much similar to the political trajectory of those two other caste satraps of the Hindi heartland?Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Yadav. And this strategy relies little on a party?s performance in government, and on getting the caste arithmetic right instead. But caste arithmetic, as Lalu and Mulayam have realised in no uncertain terms, isn?t enough to hold on to power. Because even your core constituency, once it has achieved its goal of social and political empowerment, wants more. Social engineering can help win an election or two, but it is no longer a sustainable strategy for the long run, unless it is also accompanied by improved standards of living?i.e, economic empowerment. And just like Lalu failed to provide that in Bihar and Mulayam failed to provide that in UP before her, Mayawati is failing to do so now, even for dalits.
It is when the economy is stagnating and standards of living are not rising enough that public money spent on building statues begins to jar. The new, aspirational Indian voter, including in UP, no longer has the patience to wait and listen to empty rhetoric. Even if parties want to be populist, they need to go beyond symbolism. Congress has worked on populist spending programmes like NREG and loan waiver in its favour. Mayawati, on the other hand, is still trying to make statues and garlands work for her as a substitute, but they won?t work.
The one politician who broke out of narrow caste politics is Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. And the difference he has made to Bihar?s fortunes in the last five years is there for all to see?the hard numbers on Bihar?s double-digit economic growth since he took office tell the story. Nitish Kumar?s thumping victory in Bihar (in alliance with BJP) during the Lok Sabha elections of 2009 (when the countrywide trend was in favour of the opposing UPA) was the Bihar electorate?s reward for his performance.
It is a pity then that Mayawati, with two years left in power, seems to have given up on transforming UP?s economic fortunes. For the remarkably successful politician she is, Mayawati doesn?t seem to have realised that there may be many votes to be won doing just that.
dhiraj.nayyar@expressindia.com