The recently concluded civic polls in West Bengal have confirmed?if any further confirmation was necessary?that the tide has indeed turned in the state. The collapse of the Left has been more spectacular than expected. In that sense the surprise is in the degree of the verdict, not in its direction. A few short years ago, the Left could do nothing wrong in Bengal; today it can do nothing right. It is no longer about the accomplishment or the administrative track record or the lack of an alternative programme?the Left has just lost public faith in its totality. Some may say that a year till the Assembly elections is a long time in politics. It is perhaps so in other places but not in a state that keeps the same formation in power for 34 years. Bengal?s rejection of the Left is a love affair gone sour; a matter of the heart way beyond arguments and logic.
The real story lies elsewhere. We have seen once-extremely-powerful long-standing regimes bite dust before as well?remember New Delhi 1977? The question is can the alternative last? Particularly when the new order is a now-on now-off coalition. It all therefore hinges upon uniting the anti-Left vote in Bengal. Here the drubbing that the Congress received for having decided to go alone this time is of significance. The elections clearly establish relative strengths of the two non-Left players. It makes the chances of a coalition in 2011 stronger and, more importantly, it sets the stage for the coalition to happen on Mamata?s terms. This matters. Coalitions can provide stability only if they are totally unnecessary for remaining in power. The Left Front in Bengal itself is an example. As long as there is a dominant party winning simple majority on its own, every partner knows its place and the drama goes on. It is only if the TMC can take the place of the CPI (M) and the Congress lacks the ability to blackmail the TMC that the coalition would work. This election is important not because it has strengthened Mamata?s hand vis-?-vis the Left?even if more than expected?but because it has strengthened her bargaining power against the Congress.
The decision by the Congress not to enter into an alliance did not have full support of the party members, to say the least. Pranab Mukherjee was widely accused of ?wrecking the anti-Left unity? in the run-up to the elections. It was a gamble that Mukherjee and others of the ?go-alone? brigade within the party may be repenting now. But the decision was not wholly unreasonable. Many in the Congress found it impossible to gulp down the idea of being what the Forward Bloc or RSP today is to the CPI (M) in Bengal, a complete loss of identity, particularly for the most prominent national party and the ruling party. But they have to realise that two equally forceful spouses rarely make a successful marriage in reality. And there are no prizes for guessing how the balance tilts between the Congress and TMC. By gambling in the semi-finals?and losing spectacularly?they have weakened their hand for the all-important seat-sharing deal next year. They have pushed themselves decisively into such a corner that even the idea of a ?no-deal? would lead to open revolt and desertion en masse in the party. The only choice that the Congress now has in Bengal is between keeping its identity and keeping its flock together.
As for Mamata, the state is for her to lose next year. The TMC has to ensure no major scandals hit it before the 2011 polls, now that it has many more municipal boards to run and, therefore, mistakes to make. Performance itself does not matter that much; not in a year at least, it just needs to stay away from the headlines.
The Left Front ministers should be excited about the imminent chance of a long overdue break from their administrative chores, but somehow it seems they are not taking it in that spirit. Advancing Assembly elections by a year now would have been a masterstroke?an attempt at the moral high ground by a party widely viewed, rightly or wrongly, as venal and corrupt. But then the game is up for most of the individual ministers and party high priests, they are unlikely to be around the Writer?s?if around at all that is?when the Left gets another chance to rule Bengal. They know it and still have a year to enjoy office.
Consequently, instead of bowing to public opinion they would probably go on with desperate and empty threats of ?bloody elections?. But the people of Bengal have already realised that the goons and the cops, with considerably weaker party identification than the leaders, have already started the exodus.
?The author teaches finance at the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad