On February 5, 2008, the WTO General Council endorsed a protocol on Ukraine?s accession after a series of conditions were agreed upon with the EU. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has signed the protocol for joining the WTO. This was the culmination of a process that Ukraine embarked upon back in 1993.

The country?s officials have made no secret of their desire to reach a new ?enhanced agreement? with the EU, which, besides offering access to its free trade area, would step up energy cooperation between Brussels and Kiev. Ukraine?s pro-European and also many of its so-called pro-Russian elites see the establishment of a free trade zone as helping Ukraine?s integration into the EU with the ultimate goal of joining the supranational organisation.

Russia is displeased, as seen in the gruffness of its recent talks with Ukraine. Remember that Russia remains one of the only very few big economies still outside the 151-member WTO. This, despite the fact that it started its preparations to join the WTO around the same time in 1993. Ukraine is likely to be a full-fledged member by May 2008, but its powerful northern neighbour is unlikely to have even completed the endless rounds of talks on accession by then. Indeed, once a member, Ukraine may seek to escape Russia?s clutches more openly. The gas-supply relationship between Moscow and Kiev has been strained, lately, though this week saw a settlement of sorts.

Ukraine?s parliament, the Rada, must ratify the protocol on accession. This may be delayed, given the Orange coalition?s slim majority in parliament. As for Russia, it has many more obstacles to overcome before it gains membership. To join the WTO, a candidate nation has to conduct talks with all WTO members on the stated aim of upholding free trade throughout the world. In late 2006, Russia signed a bilateral agreement with the US on its WTO entry after years of negotiations. The last serious obstacle was gone, it seemed. But there were others.

There?s the EU, for example. European trade commissioner Peter Mandelson, who met the Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos this January, has said that efforts are in full swing to ensure Russia?s membership by the end of this year.

But new negotiators have emerged, including the former Soviet republics of Estonia (joined in 1999), Georgia (2000) and Moldova (2001). Even the Gulf states have started talks with Russia. Saudi Arabia, which joined only in late 2005, has also initiated trade talks with Russia, and the UAE has voiced similar interests.

Russia?s trade talks with the Gulf states seem to be dragging on interminably. Moreover, Russia still has to resolve specific problems with some WTO members with which it already has bilateral general agreements?on railway tariffs and export duties on round timber with the EU, and on check-points in Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions bordering Georgia.

If all that is not complicated enough, Russia still has to hold multilateral negotiations on support for agriculture, veterinary, sanitary and phytosanitary issues, and intellectual property rights protection.

That Ukraine, formerly under its sway, should start making unfriendly noises in the midst of all this must have been quite galling for Russia. Yushchenko has been quite blunt in announcing his intention to use Ukraine?s WTO membership as a pressure tool to address, for example, Russian anti-dumping duties on Ukrainian products. Kiev estimates that Russian restrictions on its goods have reduced its exports by $3 billion and increased its trade deficit with Russia to $6 billion.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, however, has been issuing statements more palatable to Russia. Economists find it difficult to believe that Ukraine will resist the use of its WTO membership to settle problems with Russia. But then again, this is not only about economics.

The author is trade professor at Icfai Business School, Chandigarh.

E-mail: vasu022@gmail.com