In the year 1900, electric cars outsold all others kinds (steam, electric and gasoline options were available) in the US. Then the internal combustion engine made a big technological leap, went into mass production and grew to dominate the 20th century. The economies of fuel, industrial growth and consumer passion were all in its favour. Today, inch by hard-fought inch, we are seeing the trend reversing on all these fronts. Future descendants will look back and call this the century of the electric car.
India is justifiably proud of the ?the people?s car?. Its egalitarian, social vision made the world stand up and applaud. Yet, the reason Nano only happened in 2009 was because that?s how long it took for our desires, innovation, incomes, manufacturing and policy support to catch up with the West. It would be unconscionable if we were to fall back once again. So, it?s great that Budget 2011 has announced a National Mission for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles, alongside customs and excise concessions for electrical, fuel cell or hydrogen cell, and hybrid vehicles. But we don?t know the whens and hows of the mission yet. We know that a 5% duty cut here or a 10% there cannot be a game-changer. Not by itself. We worry that the mission will go the way of the national biofuel policy.
Remember, back in 2007, a GoM headed by Pranab Mukherjee had recommended that India adopt a mandatory blending of 10% ethanol for petrol vehicles. Next year, the Cabinet approved a policy target of 20% bioethanol and biodiesel blending by 2017. You didn?t hear anything about it in this Budget and you may not hear anything about the hybrid and electric vehicles mission in the next one. Admittedly, biofuels have turned out to be more dodgy than they appeared initially. US ethanol is now blamed for food inflation and its greenhouse-gas emissions have not turned out to be that wholesome either. But the country managed to increase ethanol?s share in its fuel supply from 1% to 7% between 2000 and 2008, while we kept yo-yoing over whether jatropha was the next big thing or not.
The affordable, air-conditioned, widely repair- and fuel-networked, and quiet efficiency of conventional cars was not birthed in a day. We can?t expect any different of cost-competitive alternatives. But because quantum technological leaps are the order of the day today, green car evolution is much more brisk. Oil company representatives are still saying wait; because the alternatives have high prices and high emissions (not higher), resources would be better spent on supporting improvements in the internal combustion engine?s performance. This, they say, would be more cost-effective for now. Fuel-efficiency ratings are certainly something that should have become routine in India by now. But all carmakers recognise that conservatism won?t make for a good endgame.
Last year, Tata turned up with Indica Vista EV at the Geneva motor show. One of the biggest hits at this year?s show has been the Phantom 102EX. A fully electric Rolls-Royce! Another brand that?s switching gears noticeably is the Volkswagen, which had long argued that better diesel strategies made for more sense than hybrids. But, given its announced ambition of becoming the world?s leading automaker by 2018, Volkswagen didn?t shock by showing up with the Jetta Hybrid in Geneva.
January was the cruellest month for Toyota Prius in India. A grand total of one sale was reported. The world?s best-selling hybrid has been at the heart of green cars? main-streaming story. It?s not a fairy tale. Cost and mileage remain formidable sale barriers as compared to conventional cars, especially in emerging markets like India. On the other hand, improvements in technology haven?t been insubstantial either. Analysts estimate that the Prius needed oil at $160 a barrel to offset its high price in 2008. By 2015, a barrel price of $100 would do the trick, and without government subsidy at that.
Indian royalty led car purchases at the beginning of the last century. The last decade saw Hollywood celebrities line up to buy, use and promote the Prius, electric cars and company. In the UK, prominent businessmen like Victor Blank (with RBS and Lloyds credentials) have given electrics a whizzful of publicity. India hasn?t seen anything of the sort with a Khan or on Marine Drive. Yes, till electric cars match the price effect of a Nano, they won?t achieve mass scales. Yes, the government can be blamed for policy inertia. But why haven?t our elite climbed aboard what?s obviously the next big thing?
renuka.bisht@expressindia.com