Balance of power is shifting in Spain

First came a compliment, then a caution, almost prophetic. Last year, after his team Manchester United was annihilated for the second time in three years in the final of European club soccer?s showpiece event, the UEFA Champions League, Sir Alex Ferguson, the manager of England?s most successful outfit for over a quarter century, paid a glowing tribute to his tormentors. ?Barcelona are the best team in Europe,? he admitted, gracious?and humbled?after the 3-1 defeat at the new Wembley Stadium in London last May. ?In my time as as manager, I would say they are the best team that we have faced. No one has given us a hiding like that.?

In the same breath, however, the septuagenarian sage from Govan, Glasgow, added: ?Great teams go in cycles, and they?re at the peak of the cycle they?re in at the moment. But, how long it lasts, whether they can replace that team at another point…they certainly have the philosophy. Can you find players like Xavi (Hernandez) and (Andres) Iniesta and (Lionel) Messi all the time???

The answer to the second question came a few days back when Barcelona lost their league and European crowns in the space of one week despite all three of the above being on the pitch. Forget the triumvirate, Barca?s core, the Catalans, couldn?t even find suitable substitutes for the injured striker David Villa or indisposed central defender Eric Abidal, as Chelsea and Real ripped their cloak of invincibility into shreds.

That leaves us with the tricky first question that Ferguson had posed: how long can the Barca cycle lasts? Or as just about everyone is asking: ?Is it already over?? There has been a blip most certainly in their performance, but is it a decline? And if it is, is it a terminal one?

Sporting dynasties, curiously, have a history of almost jumping to their death after reaching the pinnacle: Alfred di Stefano?s Real Madrid peaked with a 7-3 win over Eintracht Frankfurt in 1960 as they lifted their fifth successive European title, but that also marked the beginning of a 36-year drought; Johan Cruyff?s Ajax Amsterdam?s high point came in a 1973 campaign during which they steamrolled over Bayern Munich, Real and Juventus, but after that third continental title, they wouldn?t lift another for the next 22 years.

With the realistic chance of winning only one trophy this season?they play Athletic Bilbao in Kings Cup final on May 25?the Barca?s fall might seem precipitous from the highs of 2010-11 season, but a closer look will show that the slump so far has been both more gradual than it might initially appear. To begin with, more than the Champions League defeat at the hands of Chelsea in the semifinals, it is finishing second to Real Madrid in La Liga that indicates a shift in the balance of power in Spain. It has happened over the course of two years.

Barca were on the top of their cycle not against United on May 28, 2011, as Ferguson suggested, but, perhaps, seven months earlier, during their 5-0 romp over Jose Mourinho?s Real at Camp Nou on November 30, 2010?the most astonishing subjugation of a top-notch team in recent times. (Man City?s 6-1 thrashing of United at Old Trafford this season does come to mind, but those sides aren?t in the same league, literally and figuratively)

Barca?s form waned after the winter break, and by the time the two sides met four times in 15 days in the spring of 2011, Real had bridged the gap quite considerably. Like two heavyweight boxers, the two teams pummelled each other to the point that it became a battle for standing their ground rather than knocking the opponent out. Barca won the league and the right to play in the Champions League final, but Real chipped away with a morale-boosting Kings? Cup crown.

The Catalans began 2011-12 with a narrow Spanish Super Cup win over a tougher, hungrier Real and another victory in the league Clasico in Madrid, but faded away in the business half of the season. Madrid gave them a brief window of opportunity, but then slammed the door shut with a 2-1 win at Camp Nou, their first at Barcelona?s homeground in four and a half years. Three days later, Barcelona were stunned for a second time, with an unfancied Chelsea knocking the holders out of the coveted Champions League?the gold standard of club football.

So what happened to the all-conquering Barcelona? Statistics show that they are still winning 75.6% of the games, a staggering number in any league, but not enough in the two-horse race that is Spanish league, for Real?s winning percentage is a surreal 83.8 this season. Mourinho?s team have clearly played more consistent, if not better, football.

Unsurprisingly, all this while, Barca?s ball-possession has been more than ever and they have been racking up more shots on goal?and even goals?than before. Messi alone has struck 72 times in all competitions?breaking Bayern legend Gerd Mueller?s 40-year-old record. But the problem is, he has been, well, alone .

Part of the reason that he broke the record, it could be argued, was because he was the only reliable attacking option that Barca had after Villa broke his foot in December during their Club World Cup win against Santos. Three of Barcelona?s four losses in all competitions came in this period, with rivals crowding Messi out and leaving Barcelona clueless at times. They kept creating chances, but Messi aside, there wasn?t anyone to convert them.

Very often, lesser sides than the Barcelona of 2011-12 have comfortably won more silverwares with generous slices of luck. And sometimes, a better side than the Barcelona of 2011-12 hasn?t quite matched expectations. A case in point: the Barcelona of 2009-10. That relentless team piled up a record 99 points in the league, and lost only three matches in all competitions that entire season. Two of those results, however, knocked them out of two trophies: Champions League and Kings Cup.

This year, Messi was denied by the post twice as a luckless Barcelona went down to a resilient Chelsea 3-2 on aggregate. Evidently, in the end those 72 strikes that went in didn?t matter as much as the one from the spot on April 24 that didn?t.

But if you don?t see the same Barcelona next year, blame it on what happened later that week, away from the pitch. Barcelona?s most devastating loss came inside a packed press-conference room at Camp Nou when their talismanic coach said he would leave the club at the end of the season. Pep Guardiola, former Barca captain and a philosopher of a manager, transformed a group of highly talented individuals into a peerless winning machine that lifted an unprecedented 13 trophies in four seasons. And they did it while weaving beautiful triangles on the pitch, playing heavenly football all along. It took one announcement from an emotionally drained balding man to bring them down to earth.