Are India’s wheat imports plans in jeopardy? The food ministry has gone into a huddle after Australia said it would not be able to export wheat in the current season.

The communication comes a week after reports suggesting that India will invite tenders to import another 10 lakh tonne of wheat.

A communication from the Australian Wheat Board says, “Since we met in August, the production potential in the east of Australia has all but collapsed. It simply hasn’t rained. The wheat crop has declined in potential from 22 million tonne in July to about 15 million tonne. And forecasters believe it will fall further once harvest commences.”

But Australia has slashed its quarter-on-quarter official wheat crop forecast for 2007-08 by 46% to 12.1 million tonne for September from the June forecast of 22.5 million tonne and by 22% from 15.5 million tonne from a mid-quarter forecast.

That Australia is important to Indian wheat import plans is evident from the fact that the country imported 22.8% or 14.28 lakh tonne from Down Under out of a total 54.54 lakh tonne imported using global tenders in 2006-07.

Even the Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has revised its wheat forecast downwards by 10%. Its latest report says, “Most downward revisions sine July have concerned wheat, output of which is now forecast to reach just about 606 million tonne, considerably less than expectations earlier this year.”

The FAO report says, “In Oceania, the prospects for the wheat crop in Australia have deteriorated significantly because of hot and dry weather, which set in after planting in the major producing areas.”

The food ministry is now trying to shore up its wheat import strategy in the face of Australia not being able to participate in the global wheat trade.

According to analysts, the price of wheat could cross $450 a tonne.

“While the government has firmed up plans to import

another 10 lakh tonne of wheat, it is evaluating its options before

calling for tenders. The Australian pullout is a big blow to India’s wheat import plans,” said a senior food ministry official.

This fiscal, India contracted imports of 7.95 lakh tonne of wheat

at an average price of $389.45 a tonne in September and 5.11 lakh

tonne at an average $325.59 a tonne in July.