$7-bn extra funding to help farmers tackle climate change, says food research body

The International Food Policy Research Institute (Ifpri) has called for an additional annual investment of $7 billion in agricultural productivity to help farmers adapt to climate change. It is estimated that climate change will reduce wheat yield 30% and rice 15%. Prices of these two essential cereals are projected to rise more than 100%. It will also drive almost 25 million children to malnourishment.

The study, Climate change: impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation, was prepared by Ifpri for inclusion in two separate reports from the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank, both released on Wednesday in conjunction with international climate change meetings in Bangkok.

?Investments are needed in agricultural research, improved irrigation and rural roads to increase market access for poor farmers. Access to safe drinking water and education for girls is also essential,? said Gerald Nelson, Ifpri senior research fellow and report lead author.

The US-based Ifpri, one of the five centres supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, seeks sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty.

Without new technology and adjustments by farmers, climate change will reduce irrigated wheat yields in 2050 by around 30% in developing countries compared to a no-climate change scenario. Irrigated rice yields will fall by 15%.

Developing countries will be hit hardest by climate change and will face bigger declines in crop yields and production than industrialised countries, the study finds. The negative effects of climate change are especially pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Compared to the average biophysical effects of climate change on yields in the industrialised world, the developing countries fare worse for almost all crops.

Even without climate change, food prices will rise, but climate change makes the problem worse. Without climate change, 2050 wheat prices will increase globally by almost 40%. With climate change, wheat prices will increase 170-194%. Rice is projected to increase 60% without climate change, but it will go up 113-121%with climate change. The 2050 maize prices will be more than 60% higher without climate change, but they will be 148-153% higher with climate change.

The net result of this catastrophic changes, according to the report, is that there would be 25 million more malnourished children in 2050.

This study, the most comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on agriculture to date, compares the number of malnourished children in 2050 with and without climate change.

The first of its kind, this study combines climate models that project changes in rainfall and temperature and a crop model to capture biophysical effects with Ifpri?s economic model of world agriculture. The latter projects changes in the production, consumption and trade of major agricultural commodities.

?This outcome could be averted with $7 billion a year of additional investments in agricultural productivity to help farmers to adapt to the effects of climate change,? the study says.

However, the modelling adopted for the study does not include the effects of increased variations in weather due to climate change, the loss of agricultural lands due to rising sea levels, climate change-induced increases in pests and diseases, and increased variability in river flow as glaciers melt. All these factors could increase the damage of climate change to agriculture, the study warns.

?Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change, because farming is so weather-dependent. Small-scale farmers in developing countries will suffer the most,? noted Mark Rosegrant, director of Ifpri’s environment and production technology division and report co-author. ?However, our study finds that this scenario of lower yields, higher prices, and increased child malnutrition can be avoided,? he said.

In addition to increased funding for rural development, Ifpri recommends more open agricultural trade to ensure that food will reach the poorest populations in times of crises.

?If governments and donors begin to invest seriously in adaptation for poor farmers now, we can avert this bleak future,? said Rosegrant.