Todays Chanakya projection on Jharkhand exit polls

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SummaryAs usual Todays Chanakya surprising findings predicts a hung assembly with the Congress + is ahead of BJP combine.

TODAYS CHANAKYA™ POLL

-- The Election was held in 5 stages & ended on 18th December.

-- The Exit Poll was conducted among 14,345 adults in Jharkhand.

-- Congress fought the elections together in tie up with Babulal Marandi’s Party - JVM while the BJP was with JD(U)

-- As usual Todays Chanakya™ surprising findings predicts a hung assembly with the Congress + is ahead of BJP combine.

-- As per the analysis of Todays Chanakya™ the main fight is between BJP & Congress

Hung Assembly Predicted in Jharkhand

VOTE % & SEAT FORECAST

-- Congress+ : Votes 30% +/- 4% & Seats 33 +/- 5

-- BJP+ : Votes 28% +/- 4% & Seats 28 +/- 5

-- Independent/JMM/Others : Votes 42% +/- 5% & Seats 20 +/- 5

Methodology

The Exit Poll was conducted in the state of Jharkhand from 25th November to 18th December among 14345 adults. Figures for age,sex,race/ethnicity,region were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

Primary data was collected through AMERICAN Stratified methods of sampling so that the minimum error of sample exists and that too may be rectified. The representative data so collected includes all the parameters for the poll outcomes of the state of Jharkhand.

The secondary data was also used for the outcome of change of popularity with caste distributions of voters: urban; male-female, literate-illiterate; employed-unemployed voters etc. etc. was considered.

After collection of representative data, these data’s were condensed in tabulation form to study their salient features. Where necessary these data’s are also put in to graphs & frequency distribution table. With the help of interpolation, the missing data were estimated for the primary representative data.

The model for TIME SERIES analysis is also used with original data for the trend of the rate of change of popularity index with reference to the last Assembly election 2005 & last Lok Sabha 2009 held. The different types of fluctuations were eliminated. Corrections of the estimations were checked through time reversal test. In all; the seven layer checks & counter checks were made to determined and summarized.

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