India receives about 4,000 cubic km of water annually through precipitation. About 80% of the rainfall is received from the southwest monsoon. The prospects of good crops on much of the cultivated area in India depend on the timing, spread and amount of monsoon rain. Annual rainfall varies from as low as 100 mm in western Rajasthan to as high as 9,000 mm in Meghalaya in northeast India.
There is also considerable variation in the quantity of water available from the rainfall. Since monsoon rainfall is usually torrential in intensity, there is tremendous runoff. This means that only about half the surface water available through precipitation can be put to beneficial use due to topographical and other constraints.
It is not, therefore, surprising that even now the onset of the southwest monsoon causes worries among policymakers and politicians. The monsoon routinely hits newspaper headlines despite the several policies and programmes to isolate Indian agriculture from the vagaries of the monsoon since the Independence. Good harvests depend more on the monsoon than on improved seeds or fertilisers.
In a national seminar on policies relating to agriculture, a senior bureaucrat wearily remarked that a positive correlation between agricultural growth rates and the monsoon makes it pointless to debate sound policies for agricultural growth. The question whether Indian agriculture can ever overcome its dependence on the monsoon thus assumes great importance. But the answer is, unfortunately, in the negative?going by the current trends.
Of the total 328 million hectare land area, cropped area is 142.5 million hectare, or 43%. The net irrigated area is nearly 59 million hectare. Important sources of irrigation are groundwater (nearly 62%) and canals (about 30%). More importantly, nearly 60% of the total area in India is cultivated without any irrigation whatsoever.
Can the irrigated area be expanded? Of the 140 million hectare of irrigation potential in the country, 75% has already been created. The irrigation potential created has, however, varied across sources and states. In the case of groundwater, over 85% of irrigation potential has already been created, while it is only about 63% in the case of major and medium irrigation (MMI). The states of Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Punjab and Karnataka have used much of the potential through MMI.
Although there is still considerable MMI potential in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat and Orissa, high environmental and capital costs come in the way of its utilisation. It is, therefore, not surprising that the growth of canal irrigation, which was increasing at the rate of around 2% a year in the first 30 years of independent India, has declined to 0.2% in the last two decades.
Groundwater has been extensively used for irrigation in several states, especially in Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana. The growth rate of well irrigation was very high during the 1960s to 1980s. But as of now, only Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa have some potential. Thus, there is only a little that we have in terms of irrigated area expansion in the country.
An important problem is the non-utilisation of potential created due to several problems. The utilisation of MMI has been low due to silt accumulation in dams on account of soil erosion and high transmission losses. The use of groundwater potential created is constrained by declining groundwater tables in several parts of the country and a lack of regular power supply.
This implies that groundwater is the principal source of irrigation in India. Dependence on groundwater essentially means dependence on the monsoon. The monsoon is essential for groundwater irrigation, first, to recharge bore-wells and, second, to supplement irrigation. The monsoon becomes even more important if one considers the declining groundwater table and uncertain power supply.
Thus, although we have created considerable potential in terms of MMI and groundwater, irrigation in India has not reached a stage where we can say that we have been able to isolate Indian agriculture from the vagaries of the monsoon.
If this is the case with irrigated areas, we can imagine the status of farmers cultivating crops without any irrigation. In the case of 60% of the cropped area that does not have any access to irrigation, farmers? dependence on the monsoon is total. Our farmers will, therefore, continue to look to the sky and pray to the rain gods before sowing their land.
The writer is professor, Centre for Decentralisation & Development, Institute for Social & Economic Change, Bangalore. raja@isec.ac.in