The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is heating up. Following the first presidential debate in Philadelphia, Harris has experienced a boost in her polling numbers. This debate, held after President Joe Biden stepped down from the Democratic ticket in July, was the first direct face-off between Harris and Trump.
According to recent polls, Harris was seen as the clear winner in the debate. But how does that translate to the broader race against Trump? Currently, Harris holds a 2.8-point lead over Trump, according to an average of national polls aggregated by FiveThirtyEight. This slim advantage has been a consistent trend, with Harris maintaining a marginal lead.
However, a brand new Ipsos-Reuters poll conducted in the two days following the debate shows Harris pulling further ahead, with a +5-point lead. Among 1,405 registered voters, Harris stands at 47%, while Trump trails at 42%.
US Presidential Election 2024: Harris gains momentum post-debate
Harris has steadily increased her lead over Trump since taking over the Democratic nomination. The Ipsos poll indicates that Harris’s margin has grown by 1 point since late August when she led by 4 points (45% to 41%).
This stronger lead suggests that the debate has positively impacted public perception of Harris, providing her campaign with a boost as Election Day nears.
All major polls indicate that Harris was perceived as the debate winner. Even a seasoned Republican pollster has cautioned that this spells trouble for Trump.
US Presidential Election 2024: Harris outshines Trump
Across the board, voters, including independents and Democrats, saw Harris as the debate winner. Notably, 14% of Republicans also felt Harris outperformed Trump. Most significantly, half of independent voters said Harris won, marking a dramatic shift from the June Biden-Trump faceoff, where 62% viewed Trump as the victor.
While Republicans remain loyal, with 31% claiming neither candidate won the debate, there is a clear sign that confidence in Trump may be wavering. However, whether this shift will impact voting behaviour remains uncertain.
US Presidential Election 2024: State-by-state breakdown
The presidential race remains tightly contested in key battleground states. Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Trump holds a narrow +2-point lead in Florida and Arizona, states where he has historically performed well.
Trump maintains strong leads in Ohio and Texas, while Harris is comfortably ahead in Maryland, Colorado and Virginia.
As the election draws closer, both candidates will be vying for votes in these pivotal states, where even the slightest shift could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.