White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday that the October jobs and Consumer Price Index reports will probably not be released because of the government shutdown.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics and other major data agencies had halted their work and stopped releasing economic reports during the shutdown. This means policymakers don’t have the key information they need to evaluate how the US economy is doing.
Leavitt said the Democrats “may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released”. She added that economic data that will be released will be “permanently impaired”.
Doubt on release of key US economic reports due to longest government shutdown
The delay in releasing important economic data has been one of Wall Street’s biggest worries as the government shutdown stretches beyond six weeks, the longest in US history.
The most crucial reports affected are the monthly nonfarm payrolls and the consumer price index, both released by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, a CNBC report said. Other data such as retail sales, import and export figures, and consumer spending and income have also been disrupted.
Many Wall Street economists had expected these reports to come out later than usual, but Karoline Leavitt’s recent remarks have raised doubts about whether they will be released at all.
What do the economists say?
Economists say that while some data can be gathered and released later, certain reports might be skipped completely. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment rate are seen as the most at risk because of the way their data is collected.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which decides when reports are released, has not yet shared an updated schedule. It’s possible the agency may combine two months of data into one report to catch up. The BLS has not commented on the matter.
Late last month, the White House said there would be no October inflation report, the first time ever such figures would be missed. At that time, the BLS had stated it would return to normal work once funding was restored and would inform the public about any changes in its release plan.
What about the jobs report?
Leavitt did not specify whether she was talking about the entire jobs report or just one part of it. Basically, the report is based on two surveys, reported Bloomberg. One is from businesses that provides the main payroll numbers, and another from households that determines the unemployment rate. While companies usually keep their records and can send data electronically, it will be harder to contact people later and ask them to recall their job status for a specific week in October, the report added.
White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Tuesday that he was informed that some of the surveys were never actually completed.
Leavitt warned that the missing data is “leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.” The Federal Reserve will meet on December 9-10 to decide whether to cut interest rates for the third time this year.