With just hours to go before New York City heads to the polls, the mayoral race is turning into a nail-biting contest between Democratic frontrunner Zohran Mamdani and independent challenger Andrew Cuomo. The latest round of polls, including data compiled by The New York Times from multiple pollsters, shows Mamdani still leading the race, despite billionaire pushback, but with a much narrower margin than strong numbers just a few weeks ago.
Early voting ends Sunday evening, and polls open citywide at 9 am on Tuesday, November 4.
Mamdani still leads the New York mayoral race
According to the most recent AtlasIntel poll, conducted between October 25 and 30, Mamdani leads with 41% support, followed by Cuomo at 34%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24%. The survey, which polled around 1,500 voters, gives Mamdani a lead of 6.6 percentage points, this is his narrowest since July, according to the New York Post.
Earlier polls had suggested a more comfortable picture for Mamdani. A Fox News–Beacon Research poll taken from October 24 to 28 showed him ahead by 16 points (47% to 31%). Similarly, a Marist University poll from the same period put him up 16 points at 48% to 32%.
However, a Suffolk University survey taken from October 23 to 26 showed a very close contest with Mamdani at 44%, Cuomo at 34%, and Sliwa at 11%. The poll noted a sharp drop from Mamdani’s 20-point lead in September to just 10 points now.
Meanwhile, other polls show similar trends. Quinnipiac University has placed Mamdani ahead by 10 points, Manhattan Institute by 15 points, and Victory Insights by 18 points.
Obama’s backing boosts Mamdani’s campaign
Ever since the Democratic primary, billionaires in New York City have done everything in their power to block him from winning the race, including figures like Bill Ackman and Michael Bloomberg, who poured millions into an anti-Mamdani campaign. Still, over the past week, Mamdani’s popularity has only grown, especially after a personal call from former President Barack Obama.
The 32-year-old Queens assemblyman, who describes himself as a democratic socialist, has received support from major Democratic figures, including Vice President Kamala Harris, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Rep. Jerry Nadler, and even Obama himself. According to The New York Times, Obama personally spoke with Mamdani for 30 minutes, praising his campaign as “impressive to watch” and offering to serve as a “sounding board” in the future.
If elected, Mamdani would become New York City’s first Muslim mayor. Andrew Cuomo, meanwhile, said New Yorkers want a leader who can “handle whatever comes up,” emphasising his experience and crisis management skills. “People want affordable housing. People want to see the economy working,” Cuomo said. “And in New York City, you can have a major crisis at any time, we just marked the anniversary of Hurricane Sandy. I don’t think they want a mayor who has no experience or ability to do the job.”
While Mamdani remains the favourite, the narrowing gap and the unpredictable “Sliwa factor” mean the final outcome could hinge on last-minute voter turnout.