Russia remained the largest supplier of crude oil to India in September with a 33.3% share, despite the mounting US pressure on New Delhi to stop its purchases of barrels from the sanction-hit country. However, purchases from the Eurasian nation declined moderately from August levels, suggesting a slow diversification of oil sourcing by Indian refiners.
As per data provided by global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, the country imported 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil last month, down 6% from 1.7 mbd in August. Post the imposition of a 50% tariff by the US, there has been a notable decline in Russian oil volumes from the peak of 2.1 million bpd purchased in June.
The country imported 4.8 million barrels of oil overall during September, up 6% from August levels.
What do analysts say?
“Russian crude maintained its position as the largest single supplier… However, this was about 190,000 bpd below the average Russian volumes imported during the first eight months of 2025,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at Kpler.
Kpler pointed out that freight costs into India from Russia remained a swing factor but it did not derail flows. Through late September and into early October, Urals-to-India freight costs rose, while Urals discounts narrowed versus September levels.
“This combination dented the arbitrage, cooling marginal spot buying and creating risks of delayed or reshaped loadings. Still, Russian barrels remain among the most economical feedstock options for Indian refiners given their high GPW margins and discounts relative to alternatives,” Ritolia said.
India balances imports from Russia and the middle east
India continued to balance between discounted Russian grades and reliable Middle Eastern supplies to ensure security and avoid overexposure to geopolitical shocks.
The country imported 904,000 bpd of crude oil from Iraq last month, up from 730,000 bpd imported in August. Shipments from the US stood at 212,000 bpd against August levels of 230,000 bpd.
India imported 606,000 bpd of oil from Saudi Arabia while shipments from the UAE stood at 609,000 bpd.
Looking ahead to the festive season (Oct–Dec 2025), Kpler anticipates Indian refinery operations to stay robust, with fewer maintenance turnarounds than last year.
“Russian barrels are likely to remain the core of the import mix, but refiners are clearly placing more emphasis on diversification across the Middle East, Americas, and Africa,” Kpler said.
However, with freight rates elevated, India-bound Russian spot loadings are likely to remain flat into October versus September, though ongoing disruptions to Russia’s downstream system suggest crude exports will stay healthy, and discounts could rise again to sustain flows.
“There has definitely been a stronger push for diversification of supply, but Russian oil remains central and continues to hold the largest share. And it’s not as simple as just switching off flows overnight. Supply chains are embedded, term deals are in place, and contracts are typically signed 6–10 weeks before arrival. Refiners are also constantly in negotiation with Russian sellers. Re-wiring all that takes time. What we are seeing, however, is that Indian refiners are gradually looking to expand their basket—not necessarily to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity of flows, and economic flexibility,” Ritolia said.
Russia still supplies roughly 35% of India’s crude, replacing which would require very fast sourcing from multiple producers. Moreover, Russian discounts give it a clear competitive edge as alternatives are costlier (higher freight, thinner discounts).
“If refinery margins shrink or retail fuel prices climb, that could feed into inflation, political backlash, and weaker profitability. On top of that, budget pressures, FX risks, and balance of payments strains could intensify with pricier crude. Some alternatives—like Iran or Venezuela—carry their own sanction risks, complicating substitution unless the U.S. explicitly allows it,” Ritolia said.