Nigel Farage may become UK’s new Prime Minister if elections are held tomorrow, according to a seat-by-seat YouGov poll. The poll further showed that Farage’s Reform party would wipe out Labour party’s overwhelming majority from 2024. The YouGov MRP polling projection based on a 13,000 sample taken over the last three weeks.
The YouGov MRP projection suggested that Reform UK would win 311 of the 650 seats in Parliament. While it is 15 seats short of the 326 needed for a majority, this would still position Farage’s party as the dominant force in a hung parliament.
In June, the same YouGov model had projected the Reform party would fall 55 seats short of a majority. This latest estimate showing 306 gains from its current tally of just five MPs represents the largest seat increase by any party in British electoral history.
Who is Nigel Farage?
A former commodities trader, 61-year-old Farage began his political career with the UK Independence Party (UKIP), eventually leading it through the 2009 European elections. Reform outpolled Labour and the Liberal Democrats in those elections.
Farage’s defining moment came in 2016, when he played a leading role in the Brexit referendum campaign. After the UK voted to leave the EU, he stepped away from UKIP and later founded the Brexit Party in 2019. It later evolved into Reform UK after Britain’s formal exit from the EU.
He briefly retired from frontline politics in 2021 for pursuing a television career with GB News. He also appeared on the reality show ‘I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here!’ in 2023. Farage returned dramatically to political roots in June 2024. He announced his candidacy for the Clacton seat and retook the leadership of Reform UK, positioning himself once again as a major player in Westminster politics.
Labour’s challenge
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who secured a landslide just last year, is not legally required to call another election until 2029. However, the poll shows the steep challenge Labour now faces. A series of scandals, policy reversals and wavering public confidence have dented Starmer’s authority, leaving space for Farage’s populist, hardline messaging — particularly on immigration.