By Kashif Anwar,

At the time when US-China is going through a rough phase, the recent sighting of a Chinese balloon (airship) at 60,000 feet over Montana on February 03, 2023 created another low in the US-China relationship. With the US holding three nuclear missile silos at the Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, it became a serious issue for the US, as it saw the incident as part of Chinese surveillance and spying on US critical infrastructure. As the US labelled airship as a surveillance airship which China refute as they stateit is a civilian weather research airship only meant for meteorology research and because of westerlies it went off course. However, sighting of such balloons vis-à-vis growing tension between the US and China, couldn’t be viewed as one small incident. Although China called on the US not to smear the incident, the incident will leave a mark instead in the US-China relationship in the coming years.

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China’s Spying Balloon: A new ‘Flashpoint’ in the US-China relationship

Recently, the world saw a tense relationship between the US and China which spans from race to dominate in outer space to maritime supremacy on the one hand. On the other hand, saw a tense competition to be a dominant geopolitical power and technological superiority in critical and advanced technologies. In such a situation, sightings of a 34 cubic metre size balloon at the height of around 60,000 in a sensitive zone in the US created another low point in the US-China relationship. As the US argued, the balloons are carrying sensors and surveillance equipment and cable of manoeuvrable and can change its course, the incident coincided with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visit to China February 04, 2023, which was aimed to reduce growing tension between the US and China. The US saw the incident as an irresponsible and detrimental act from China and performed it at the time when the US Secretary of State will visit China in October 2018 to improve the US-China relationship.

Although, the incident became an another flashpoint in the US-China relationship, on the other hand, China attempted to play down the whole and labelled balloon as purely a non-military airship meant for weather research and further refute there was no such planned visit by Blinken. However, the sighting of such a balloon couldn’t be viewed as a normal incident and China’s refute stance on the issue shouldn’t be viewed as a new normal, as it stated the balloon wasn’t meant for surveillance and only equipped with limited navigational ability. Considering in the recent past visits by Chinese Yuan Wang-5 and 6 surveillance and tracking ships in the Indian Ocean Region or using submarines (including nuclear) to counter piracy in the past has only caused geo-strategic challenges for India in the region which China refutes.

With advancement humans made to explore the outer space which allow them to expand their surveillance and spying capabilities using satellite, use of such antiquated airships first used during the French revolution by French in 1794, seen during the Cold War as a low cost intelligence gathering method and recently by China which raises eyebrows. As such airships hover at a height between 24,000 and 37,000 metres and are powered by solar panels and propelled by winds. On the other hand, recent development of kinetic or laser weapons to target satellites has caused a resurgence of interest in such balloons. As compared to satellites, such airships don’t offer a high level of surveillance capabilities instead they are cheaper to launch, easier to retrieve and are able to hover longer and scan a larger territory from a low altitude. Further, such airships could allow China to sense electromagnetic emission such as low-power radio frequencies as higher altitude satellites often failed to do so. As a result, it will help China to understand how varied US weapon systems communicate with one another. Further, sightings of other Chinese airships over Latin America highlights China’s hidden agenda.

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However, considering the trajectory of the airship as the Biden Administration argues would traverse over some of the sensitive and critical military zone including one in Montana which stores intercontinental ballistic missile silos. China has been accused of spying in the recent past including engaging in industrial espionage, despite airship limitations China went ahead to use it to embarrass the US and collect some intelligence. Although compared to intelligence gathered through a constellation of spy and military satellites which are also being used by China extensively, data collected by such airships aren’t huge but its impact on the US-China will be big as it will become a new irritant in their ongoing power competition. However, such a balloon was shot down using the F-22 Raptor– Sidewinder missile – on February 04, 2023 by the US off the coast of Carolina created a diplomatic maelstrom and has become a new flashpoint in the US-China ties. As the balloon didn’t pose any military threat to the US as it wasn’t carrying any weapons, it tested US ability to detect an incoming threat and its air defence system.

Conclusion

The Chinese balloon that traversed across US airspace and was being traced for a few days got shot down off the Carolina coast is complicated. As the US took time to shoot down the balloon as it has to overcome the balloon’s “inherently survivable nature” as its descent and potential crash site – considering debris impact – can’t be controlled. With US shooting down the balloon, highlights whether the EP-3 aircraft 2001 incident – PLA interceptor jet damaged US aircraft – precedent will be followed or not. It raises a question, whether the US will return debris back to China or not as in 2001, as China didn’t return hardware, software or communication equipment back to the US. Further, release of a classified report highlights US adversary without naming China, are using advanced aerial technology for surveillance including balloon, which will increase and are likely to impact the US-China relationship.China argues that they hold the right to make further necessary responses and how they will respond we have to wait and see. However, in recent times, the US policy towards China has changed as maintaining US-China relationship is no longer a primary goal as they deployed its B-1B Bomber in Guam to highlight and showcase its capability to keep China in check. However, the incident impacted the US-China ties which caused a diplomatic maelstrom andimpactedBlinken’s planned visit to China which was viewed with a hope to renew the US-China relationship.

The author is Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi.

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