In a stunning turn of events, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party has faced a significant defeat in a special election for the Toronto-St. Paul’s district, a seat they have held for over three decades. This unexpected loss raises serious questions about Trudeau’s leadership as he prepares for the general election next year.
Win for Don Stewart
According to Elections Canada, the Conservative candidate, Don Stewart, won the district by nearly 600 votes, securing 42.1% of the vote compared to the Liberal candidate’s 40.5%. With all 192 polling stations reporting, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation declared Stewart the winner early Tuesday morning.
The Liberals had maintained control of Toronto-St. Paul’s since 1993, making this district a longstanding stronghold. This defeat in Canada’s largest city, a traditional Liberal bastion, signals potential trouble for Trudeau as he heads into the 2025 fall election.
“Justin’s position is seriously weakened inside the party,” remarked Canadian historian Robert Bothwell. He highlighted that while there had been a facade of unity within the party, dissent is likely to surface following this setback.
Bothwell also pointed out the extensive efforts by the Liberals to retain the seat, saying, “The Liberals poured, and were seen to pour, everything they had into this one. Bringing ministers down and mobilizing office staffs from Ottawa signaled desperation.”
Despite this loss, Trudeau has expressed his intention to lead the party into the next election. However, the Liberal party, which has been in power since 2015, is currently lagging in the polls, with voters increasingly concerned about rising living costs.
“There is a message that our voters would like to send Mr. Trudeau, and that’s one of change,” Stewart commented before the election results were announced.
Trudeau, who redefined Canada’s liberal identity after nearly a decade of Conservative rule, has several key achievements to his name, including welcoming immigrants, legalizing cannabis, and implementing a carbon tax to combat climate change. His father, Pierre Trudeau, famously led the country for almost 16 years after his initial sweep to power in 1968 on a wave of “Trudeaumania.”
The outcome of this special election adds a new dimension to the political landscape in Canada, casting a shadow over Trudeau’s prospects and highlighting a growing desire for change among the electorate.