In this crucial federal election face-off between Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, if the former candidate is defeated it will mark the shortest term in Canadian history. Both of the wrapped up their campaigns on Sunday against the tragic backdrop of the Vancouver tragedy that claimed at least 11 lives after a man drove through a crowd at a Filipino community festival, according to Reuters.
The five-week election campaigns centered largely on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. While Poilievre has promised new political blood after a “Lost Liberal decade,” Carney is focussed on retaining retaliatory tariffs. The Conservative leader’s claims of curbing living costs have resonated with the youth, bringing in large crowds to his rallies. Meanwhile, Carney moved away from former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s policies since he took charge in March. His rallies have since attracted older voters.
Nonetheless, Carney’s Liberals narrowly pulled ahead of the Conservatives by early April, as per national surveys. This shift comes despite the former being neck-and-neck in competition with the Conservatives at the time the election was called in mid-March, according to BBC.
2025 Canada elections: Who is ahead?
Even ahead of the final voting on Election Day, pollsters maintained that Mark Carney’s Liberal Party was slightly leading the popular support. In the wake of Trump tariffs and the US president repeatedly referring to Canada as the 51st US state, Liberal even resorted to comparing Poilievre to Trump. Despite his initial lead of some 20 points, polls now suggest that Carney has pulled ahead.
Reuters cited a Nanos poll, which surveyed 1,600 adult Canadian between April 24 and 26. On Sunday, it said that the leading competition between the two parties had a gap of approximately 4% points — a bit wider than Saturday’s numbers. Accordingly, national Liberal support reportedly stood at 43%, whereas the same for Conservatives was at 38.9%. The poll is accurate to 2.4% points. Similarly, an Ipsos Canada poll also pointed towards Liberal leading the popularity surveys later on Sunday.
An Abacus Data poll, quoted by the Telegraph, found on Sunday that the Liberals were only two points ahead of the Conservatives in a 41% vs 39% showdown. Nevertheless, the narrow lead could just lead the Liberals to the finish line before the other front-running competition. “In short, Canadians see Mr Carney as the problem solver in choppy seas, while Mr Poilievre is viewed as the change agent better with a hammer, an image that helps but hasn’t yet proven decisive,” David Coletto, founder of Abacus, said.
The 2025 Canada elections will kick off on Monday, April 28. According to Bloomberg, the first results are expected to pour in just after 7 pm and 7:30 pm Eastern Time. By this time, voting hours will conclude in the four Atlantic provinces, which will make up for less than 10% of the seats. The majority of results will come in at 9:30 pm, when most of the country would have voted, including the crucial battlegrounds Ontario and Quebec.