By Md. Muddassir Quamar
On March 10, 2023, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China issued a joint trilateral statement announcing an agreement between the two Gulf rivals to resume diplomatic ties and exchange ambassadors over the coming two months to be facilitated through foreign ministers’ level talks. This is an extraordinary development; not only the resumption of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran broken since 2016 is significant but also the choice of Beijing as the host and mediator is noteworthy. Although it is difficult to anticipate how the diplomatic breakthrough will pan out in the coming days and weeks, it indicates easing of the tense geopolitical climate prevailing in the Gulf and Middle East over the past decade. There are several ways this is vital for the region and if it succeeds can have far-reaching geopolitical implications.
Firstly, the announcement clearly underlines the willingness of Saudi Arabia and Iran to engage in diplomatic dialogue to discuss their differences. The diplomatic ties broke over the events following the execution of a Saudi Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr in 2016 wherein the Saudi embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad were attacked by Iranian protesters. The cutting of diplomatic ties came after years of rising geopolitical tensions between the regional heavyweights over the developments related to Arab uprisings. Both had taken proactive political, diplomatic and security measures to turn the tide of the uprisings in their favor apparently to secure their interests and to prevent the other from establishing a regional hegemony in the Gulf and beyond.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have been locked in a battle for geopolitical superiority since the 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution. The 1980-88 Iraq-Iran War and the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981 were the immediate outcomes of the fall of the Shah in Iran and the foundation of the Khomeini-led regime. A period of diplomatic rapprochement began in the 1990s under the Rafsanjani presidency in Iran but the fall of Saddam in 2003 after US invasion changed the regional balance of power leading to beginning of a bitter geopolitical rivalry that intensified in the wake of 2010-11 uprisings across the region. In a way, the trilateral statement is the first clear indication of a diplomatic thaw after rounds of official and unofficial meetings between Iranian and Saudi officials hosted by Iraq and Oman since 2021.
Secondly, the move is important for its regional geopolitical implications. As noted the two have been locked in a bitter geopolitical rivalry for decades and this has been viewed as an important reason for a number of protracted regional conflicts and instability such as in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. In each of these countries and in other regional countries, the two have tried to gain greater influence and undermine the others’ sway to be able to achieve strategic depth in the region. Iran has since the 1979 revolution, especially after the experience of the Iraqi attack, has systematically formed, trained, and sustained proxies in different regional countries. Tehran has used its Shi’a identity and the sectarian divisions in the region as well as a sense of alienation and insecurity among several groups and communities to gain strategic influence. Hezbollah in Lebanon, for example, has emerged as a major Iranian proxy that has not only helped it exert power in the country but has also helped it in its shadow fight against Iran and in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq. Iran has also used a similar modus operandi in Iraq and Syria to train and support proxy armed groups to secure its interests. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has also tried to gain influence in these countries by backing different groups over the years although it has been arguably outmaneuvered by Iran.
A similar pattern has been followed in Yemen. The conflict in Yemen is considered a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia as much as it is a civil war among the various domestic groups and factions. The main belligerents in Yemen are Houthi rebels and the UN-recognized Government of Yemen. The former have been demanding a greater say in determining the political fate of the country for decades and are up against a coalition of traditional and new elites who form the government and wish to keep the state under their control. However, the Houthis and the government have mostly banked on the political, financial, and military support from Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively, to continue fighting. There are other factions as well such as the secessionist remnants of the erstwhile communist regime in South Yemen, the Southern Transition Council (STC) that have secured support of the UAE, but they have on and off sided with the government forces. Although it is difficult to assuage the exact extent of the influence of Riyadh and Tehran over their proxies in Yemen, the diplomatic breakthrough does generate hope for the end of the armed conflict in Yemen and efforts to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means and political dialogue.
Thirdly, there are implications for Gulf security that are vital not only for stability in the region but also to economic and financial well being of many countries in Asia and other parts of the world due to its centrality in their energy security as well as the region being a major global business hub. The region has been facing serious threats to peace and stability due to the heightened tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and their shadow boxing in Yemen and Iraq. For example, civilian infrastructure, including airports and oil installations, in Saudi Arabia and UAE have been targeted by Iran-Backed militias in Yemen and Iraq causing disruptions and enhancing security threats. Additionally, there is a greater threat to maritime security in the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and Red Sea that are vital international shipping and oil causeways. This had forced many countries including India to take measures such as deployment of its naval ships to ensure security of its cargo. Notably, despite the heightened tensions there were no major disruption in oil supplies from the region or to the Sea Lines of Communication (SLoCs) in the western Indian Ocean but it did increase the strategic and financial risks. The Iran factor was also party responsible for fissure among the GCC countries, such as the boycott of Qatar (2017-21) and strategic divergence among Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and if the promise of a resumption of diplomatic ties follows through to improvement in bilateral ties, it can help reduce threats to Gulf security.
Fourthly, the development is crucial for global geopolitics and the growing tensions between the United States (US) and China and how it impacts the Gulf and Middle East. The US has since the Second World War been the dominant power in the region. Its security guarantees have been and continue to be crucial for regional security and unarguably, this has benefitted the developed and developing countries in the world to secure their interests in the region and do business with the regional countries without fearing for security of their personnel and resources. However, as the regional tensions increased and the US due to its gradual ‘pivot to Asia’ and shift to Indo-Pacific was viewed with suspicion so far as its commitment to regional security is concerned, China has been touted as the frontrunner to fill in the so called power vacuum in the Gulf. That Washington was wary of any fresh military intervention after the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan and was cautious to keep its military involvement to precise actions, such as in defeating the Islamic State (ISIS), also fueled the speculations of an imminent US withdrawal.
In the meantime, China and Russia continued to expand their regional engagement through political, economic and security ties. Russian military intervention in Syria to save the fall of Assad regime in 2015 was a crucial moment that strengthened the view that the regional and global dynamics are changing. China’s ability to rapidly expand its Belt and Road vision in the Middle East and Gulf and formation of strategic partnerships with the regional countries, its economic attractiveness and sustained political and strategic engagements with the regional countries had also backed the view of a growing US-China-Russia competition in the region. Besides, the contrarian views on crucial regional matters such as the Iranian nuclear program, the conflicts in Syria and Yemen had gave credence to discussions about China enhancing its regional influence at the cost of the US. That the regional allies of the US, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are hedging their bets with China and Russia to avoid being pressurized by the US and Western European countries on domestic matters, such as human rights and freedoms, as well as international matters, such as energy market and Ukraine crisis, further underlined the changed dynamics.
With China being chosen as the host and mediator for Iran-Saudi diplomatic negotiations and the breakthrough in terms of the announcement of a possible thaw underlines the continuation of the same process. Iran due to its problems with the US has for long been cozying up to Russia and China to create alternative center of power in the region and to support them in their global geopolitical struggles. Hence, Tehran’s choice of Beijing is no surprise. But Riyadh ‘looking east’ is significant as Saudi Arabia is considered a steadfast ally of the US. Nonetheless, if one looks at the trend in Saudi-US relations over the past years, this again fits the pattern of Riyadh seeking greater autonomy in its foreign policy choices and no longer willing to play a second fiddle to US foreign policy in the region. It also means that Saudi Arabia views China as an honest broker, but given that the US has not influence whatsoever on Iran, the choice of China is rather obvious. Nonetheless, for China this is a significant diplomatic achievement not least because of its increasing competition with the US, but also because this is the first time Beijing has been able to mediate a dispute in the Middle East. It certainly gives China some bragging rights for having expanded its influence much beyond its immediate neighborhood.
The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia for resumption of diplomatic ties is an important development that can have far reaching implications for the fragile geopolitical situation in the Gulf and Middle East. That the agreement was mediated by China makes it more significant and adds a global geopolitical angle to the development. While not diminishing the importance of the development, it is too early to suggest that the announcement will lead to a serious rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and will help resolve many of the protracted regional conflicts and help reduce security risks in the Gulf. It also does not establish China as the new regional power in place of the US. It does, however, makes China a distant second in terms of influence in the Gulf region. So far as the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is concerned, considered responsible for many of the ongoing regional conflicts, the announcement of resumption of diplomatic ties does generate a ray of hope, the veracity of which will be tested by time.
The author is Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, New Delhi.
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