Inflation measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) dropped to -0.13 per cent in June from 0.39 per cent in May, data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed on Monday. This marked the first negative reading since the beginning of the year. The negative rate of inflation in June 2025 is primarily due to decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, manufacture of basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, etc.
WPI-based inflation has been steadily easing since March and hit a 14-month low of 0.39 per cent the previous month.
The month over month change in WPI for the month of June 2025 stood at -0.19 per cent as compared to May 2025.
The month-over-month data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed that the index for primary articles increased by 0.81 per cent to 185.8 (provisional) in June from 184.3 for the month of May. The price of minerals (1.49 per cent), non-food articles (1.26 per cent) and food articles (0.82 per cent) increased in June as compared to May. The index for Fuel & Power declined by 2.52 per cent to 143.0 (provisional) in June from 146.7 for the month of May. The manufactured products index declined by 0.07 per cent to 144.8 (provisional) in June from 144.9 for the month of May.
Furthermore, per the release by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, inflation for food articles came in at -3.75 per cent in June as compared to -1.56 per cent in May. The inflation rate for primary articles went down to -3.38 from -2.02 per cent in the previous month. The fuel and power inflation was at -2.65 per cent in June as compared to -2.27 per cent in May. And manufactured products inflation stood at 1.97 per cent in June.
Under the food articles category, vegetable inflation dropped to -22.65 per cent in June from -21.62 per cent in May. Pulses inflation during the month of June came in at -14.09, while the inflation for wheat stood at 3.77 per cent during the month in review. Eggs, Meat & Fish inflation stood at -0.29 per cent in June from -1.01 per cent in May. Potato and onion reported inflation at -32.67 per cent and -33.49 per cent respectively.
The non-food articles reported WPI inflation at 2.29 per cent in June as against 1.53 per cent in May. Minerals inflation went up to 0.83 per cent in June from 0.44 per cent in May. The Crude Petroleum & Natural gas posted wholesale inflation at -12.31 per cent in June and crude petroleum was at -12.31 per cent.
Reacting on this, Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist, ICRA Ltd, said, “The seasonal sequential uptick in food prices has been relatively modest in July 2025 so far, which is expected to keep food print in the deflationary zone, unless there is an unusual surge in such prices in the remaining part of the month, especially for vegetables. Besides, international crude oil prices have also eased somewhat in the ongoing month from the peak seen in June 2025, amid cooling tensions in West Asia, while remaining in the deflationary territory on a YoY basis. Further, the USD/INR pair has also remained rangebound so far.”
Overall, ICRA expected the headline WPI to remain in the deflationary territory in July 2025 despite an unfavourable base, amid the sustained YoY deflation in food and crude oil prices.
With the WPI inflation averaging at just 0.4 per cent in Q1FY26 vis-à-vis 2.4 per cent in Q4FY25, ICRA projected the nominal GDP growth to decelerate quite sharply between these quarters.