India’s exports of petroleum products grew by 3.3% in volume terms to 53.3 million tonnes during April–January, compared to 51.6 million tonnes in the same period last fiscal, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. The rise in exports was primarily driven by increased shipments of motor spirit, petcoke, and fuel oil.
Even as the volumes registered an increase, in value terms, the exports declined by almost 7% to $36.6 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal compared with $39.3 billion in the year ago period. The dip in export value was due to subdued prices in the current year compared to the year ago period.
In January, petroleum product exports rose by as much as 15% to 5.5 million tonnes from 4.8 million tonnes in January 2024. The month, however, saw a 58% year on year decline in exports of petroleum products to $ 3.5 billion, according to separate trade data released by the commerce ministry on Monday.
Imports of refined oil products increased by 8.3% to 43.1 million tonnes during April–January, compared to 39.8 million tonnes in the same period last fiscal. The import bill for these products also rose by 6.3% to $20.2 billion, up from $19.0 billion in the same period of previous fiscal.
India’s consumption of petroleum products during the first ten months of the ongoing fiscal rose to 199.2 million tonnes, up from 192.5 million tonnes in the same period last fiscal. This growth was attributed to higher demand for diesel, motor spirit, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
While the demand for ATF increased by 8.8%, that of LPG and motor spirit grew by 6.5% and 7.7% respectively. Diesel consumption recorded a growth of 2.4% during April-January from last year.
Looking ahead, India projects domestic petroleum product demand to reach a record 252.9 million tonnes in FY26.
Even though analysts fear a supply glut in the oil market 2025 onwards, rising uncertain geopolitical tensions and weak demand outlook from the world’s top consumers could negatively impact India’s exports going forward.
The government in its economic survey also noted that global energy markets remain susceptible to disruption if there is an intensification of the evolving conflicts in the Middle East, or the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Further, this could also lead to market repricing of sovereign risk in the affected regions, it said.
The Survey highlighted that the rising geopolitical tensions in different regions across the world has contributed to increased freight rates and has disrupted energy trade. As much as 15% of the global maritime trade volume that passes through the Suez Canal has been affected.
The recent disruptions in global shipping have pushed goods prices up while pressurising the global supply chains. The government in the Survey highlighted that while container freight rates normalised in 2023, they experienced a significant surge in 2024. “This was due to stronger demand, shipping route disruptions in the Red Sea, and delays at the Panama Canal, all of which have partially sustained inflationary pressures,” the Survey said.