The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday announced commencement of withdrawal of monsoon from parts of southwest Rajasthan, signalling the end of its four-month (June-September) journey.
The met department said that the monsoon withdrawal has been delayed against the usual date of September 17. The complete withdrawal of the monsoon usually takes about a month.
Met department officials said any delay in the monsoon’s retreat means a longer rainy season, which can impact the crop production especially in northwest India where moisture left behind by monsoon plays a crucial role for winter crops.
The monsoon entered the Kerala coast on June 8, most delayed arrivals in the last four years.
The met department also predicted a low pressure area is likely to form over north Andaman Sea and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal by around September 30, which is likely to bring rains over eastern and central part of the country.
Officials told FE that after a deficit June, monsoon was surplus in the month of July followed by driest ever precipitation in August since 1901. However monsoon rains have revived thus month thus bringing down the deficit in rains sharply.
The cumulative monsoon rainfall received in all the four regions during June 1 – September 25 was 802 mm, which is 5% below the benchmark – long period average of 832 mm for the same period.
However, the distribution of rainfall has been rather uneven. The rainfall deficiency in the east and northeast and south peninsula have been 17% and 9% respectively so far, the northwest India has received 2% more rainfall than LPA, while and central India the rainfall is at par at normal range.
Key rice growing states which have received deficiency in rainfall include Uttar Pradesh (-16%), Bihar (-22%), Jharkhand (-27) and West Bengal (10%) so far against the benchmark.
During monsoon season, the country receives more than 75% of the annual rainfall, which plays a crucial role in boosting kharif or summer crops — paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane production.
The southwest monsoon after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region from the middle of September.
Meanwhile, the area under paddy has crossed last year and last five years average, at 41.15 million hectare (MH) as per the agriculture ministry statement on Friday. Despite higher paddy acreage, yield could get impacted because of patchy rainfall in key paddy growing regions.
The harvesting of paddy officially commences on October 1.
The overall kharif crops area has been just above last year and last 5-year average at 110.29 MH. Officials said that the kharif sowing activities have been largely completed across the country.
India’s foodgrain production rose by 5% on year to a new record of 330.5 million tone (MT) in the 2022-23 crop year. The target for 2023-24 is marginally higher at 332 MT.
Meanwhile, M Mohapatra, Director General, IMD said that monsoon rainfall is likely to be in the normal range at 96% of benchmark with error % of +/- 4% as predicted in the met department’s forecast in May.
IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’.
Rainfall received between 104%-110% of benchmark fall in the ‘above normal’ category while volume of rainfall above 110% of LPA is referred to as ‘excess’. The LPA is average rainfall received during 1971-2020 at 87 centimetres.