India’ food grain production will likely reach a record level of 164.7 million tonne (MT) in 2024-25 kharif season, with year-on-year increase of 5.4%, the ministry of agriculture said in Tuesday releasing the first advance estimate.
This augurs well for the rural economy and consumption, with improved income prospects for farmers.
With above-normal monsoon rainfall and high reservoir levels, the rabi sowing, which has just started, is also expected to be robust. Potentially, higher grain output could give a boost to the gross value added (GVA) in agriculture and allied sectors in the current fiscal year, although rural incomes are also a function of prices fetched by the cultivators.
After staying strong for a few years, agri GVA growth plunged to just 1.4% in 2023-24. In Q1FY25, the farm economy grew 2% compared with 3.7% in the year ago quarter.
Economists have pegged GVA growth for agriculture at 3-3.2% in the current fiscal year.
In agri GVA, the crop sector has share of roughly 55%, while livestock sector’s contribution is 30%
India’s rice production, the biggest kharif crop, is likely to touch a record 119.93 MT in the 2024-25 kharif season which is 5.5% higher than previous year, the ministry added.
The record production estimate for rice comes at a time the government has huge surplus stocks in the central pool, which is three times the buffer.
The harvesting of paddy, which accounts for more than 85% of country’ annual output is currently being underway across the country and will continue till March, 2025.
Among coarse cereals, maize output is estimated at an all-time high of 24.54 MT for the 2024-25 kharif season (July-June), up 10% on year.
While jowar production is estimated higher at 2.19 MT, bajra output is likely to decline to 9.37 MT. Pulses — tur, urad and moong output is expected to remain almost flat at 6.95 MT compared to 6.97 MT, while oilseeds production is likely to increase to 25.74 MT from 24.16 MT.
India imports about 58% of its annual edible oil and 15% of pulses consumption due to huge shortfall in domestic pulses and oilseeds output.
Among cash crops, sugarcane production is projected to decline to 439.93 MT
from 453.15 MT last year. Cotton output is estimated lower at 29.92 million bales (170 kg each) against 32.52 MB while jute production may fall to 8.45 million bales (180 kg each) from 9.69 million bales in the previous year.
For the first time agriculture ministry has prepared area estimates using Digital Crop Survey (DCS) data under the Digital Agriculture Mission, replacing the manual Girdawari system.
“The digital crop survey covered all districts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Odisha in Kharif 2024, leading to “substantial rise in area under rice particularly in Uttar Pradesh”, according to an official statement.
The ministry releases production estimates of foodgrain, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and jute four times annually. Official said with digital crop survey being undertaken across states, more accurate production estimates can be arrived at over the next few years.
As per the ministry, the area under paddy was 41.35 million hectares this season, 2.2℅ higher on year.