The Centre’s revenue, expenditure and fiscal deficit for the just concluded financial year 2022-23 (FY23) are around the respective revised estimates (REs), a senior official told FE. Capital expenditure would be over Rs 7 trillion, as against RE of Rs 7.28 trillion, he added. While the numbers are still being tallied, the official said “both the overall revenue and expenditure might not vary more than Rs 10,000 crore, either way” from the RE level.
“Whatever numbers we have given in the RE for FY23 on revenue, expenditure and fiscal deficit, the actuals are coming very close to that,” the official added.
In order to account for greater revenue expenditure on subsidies, such as food and fertilisers, the Center’s expenditure for FY23 was increased by Rs 2.42 trillion or 6.14% to Rs 41.87 trillion in the RE from the budget estimate (BE) of Rs 39.44 trillion.
In FY23RE, the net (post-devolution) tax revenue target was raised by 8% to Rs 20.87 trillion. Similarly, the fiscal deficit in absolute amount was enhanced by 5.7% to Rs 17.55 trillion, even though as a percentage of GDP it remained unchanged at the BE level of 6.4%.
The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP would be known when the provisional GDP numbers are released in end-May, but it will unlikely vary much from RE. “Expenditure data from the ministry of defense and railways has not fully come. The defence has done a lot of last-minute procurement. So, final figures will take some time,” the official said. Capital expenditure will be a little less than RE, but it would be over Rs 7 trillion, the official added.
The Centre’s interest-free capex loans to states, however, have exceeded the target by 7% to touch Rs 81,200 crore as against the RE of Rs 76,000 crore.
Data released by the finance ministry on Monday showed that the Centre’s direct tax collections (before devolution) came in at Rs 16.61 trillion, Rs 11,000 crore more than the FY23RE.
“Overall, net tax revenues (direct tax and indirect tax) will be very close to the target,” the official said.
The government’s non-tax revenues have exceeded the FY23RE thanks to Rs 16,000 crore extra dividend received from CPSEs and other government investments. The extra non-tax revenues have helped the Centre fully bridge the Rs 14,700 crore shortfall in disinvestment receipts.