Russia remained the largest supplier of crude oil to India in October with import volumes tracking at 1.62 million barrels per day, up from 1.61 mbd in September, as per data provided by Kpler. On an annual basis, however, imports of Russian oil declined 8% from 1.75 mbd in Oct 2024.
Iraq and Saudi Arabia emerged as the other top suppliers of crude oil to India with Iraq supplying 826,000 bpd of oil while imports from Saudi Arabia stood at 669,000 bpd in October.
However, the key takeaway is a sharp increase in crude imports from the US, which rose to their highest level since March 2021. Imports from the US reached 568,000 bpd in October and are expected to average 450,000–500,000 bpd in November, compared with a year-to-date average of around 300,000 bpd, according to Kpler.
India had committed to scale up energy imports from the US in bilateral talks.
“These cargoes (from the US) were likely agreed upon before the recent US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, given the 45–55 day voyage time, suggesting the spike was not sanctions-driven but rather reflects India’s ongoing diversification and energy security efforts,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
He added the increase in US imports was economics-led, supported by a strong arbitrage window, a wider Brent–WTI spread, and weak Chinese demand that made WTI Midland competitive on a delivered basis. “That said, further upside is limited, as the rise is arbitrage-led, not structural, constrained by longer voyage times, higher freight costs, and WTI’s lighter, naphtha-rich yield,” Ritolia noted.
The latest US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil mark a significant escalation and are poised to reshape India’s crude import strategy, as per analysts.
India, which imports roughly 90% of its crude needs, will face near-term disruption as these sanctions effectively turn the Russian oil molecule—at least from these two entities—into a sanctioned commodity, shifting the market dynamic from influence to enforcement, Kpler highlighted.
Following the sanctions (effective 21 November 2025), Russian crude arrivals accelerated ahead of the deadline, with no refiner except Nayara expected to import from sanctioned suppliers thereafter.
As per Kpler, Russian crude flows are likely to remain around 1.6–1.8 mbd until November 21, before tapering as refiners avoid potential OFAC-related exposure. While Indian refiners will continue sourcing Russian grades via unsanctioned intermediaries, they are expected to proceed with greater caution.
“December–January imports of Russian crude should see a notable dip as refiners assess the impact and rebuild supply chains. Despite the short-term turbulence, a complete halt in Russian imports remains unlikely, given attractive margins and India’s geopolitical stance. Unless refiners themselves face direct sanctions or the Government of India imposes formal restrictions—both improbable scenarios—Russian barrels will continue flowing to India, though via more complex logistical, financial, and trading arrangements,” Ritolia said.
In response to the new sanctions, state-run Indian Oil said it will “absolutely not” halt buying Russian crude while also complying with international sanctions.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), on the other hand, has significantly reduced imports of Russian crude oil on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q2FY26 to 5% compared to 13.2% in Q1FY26.
To offset reduced direct Russian inflows, Indian refiners are expected to increase procurement from the Middle East, Brazil, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States. The already growing US share in India’s crude basket underscores deepening US–India energy ties and aligns with India’s strategy to balance supply security, economics, and geopolitics.
However, Kpler cautioned that higher freight costs could limit the scale of substitution by eroding arbitrage opportunities. “Overall, refiners are likely to broaden their import baskets, with higher inflows from Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Guyana), United states West Africa, and the Middle East. While near-term Russian imports may dip starting December loadings, Russian barrels will continue reaching India through intermediaries,” Ritolia said.