New Zealand’s series win in India must count as one of the biggest upsets in the history of Test cricket. Just count the number of factors pointing against them. 1) India don’t lose at home. The last series defeat was in 2012, and before that in 2004; 2) New Zealand don’t carry the firepower and aura that would give any Indian team sleepless nights before a home series. In fact, before this visit, the Kiwis had won a grand total of two Tests on these shores; 3) They were coming on the back of a 2-0 thrashing in Sri Lanka, in conditions with some similarity to what they were expected to encounter in India; and 4) They lost their greatest-ever batsman, Kane Williamson, before a single ball was bowled in the series, and the Kiwi master batsman played no role in the three Tests.

But it’s for a reason that sport is not played on paper. Tom Latham, in his first assignment as New Zealand’s full-time captain, engineered a coup that has few parallels in cricket history. They mastered the conditions better than the hosts and found men for the occasion when games were in the balance. Mitchell Santner was known predominantly as a white-ball bowler and played a solitary Test in the series, but his name will forever be etched in New Zealand cricket history for the 13-wicket match haul in Pune that sealed the series triumph. There was expected to be no contest between the spin-bowling resources of the two teams, but Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja were out-bowled by the visitors.  

Rachin Ravindra had set the 50-over World Cup alight a year ago, but can also teach a thing or two to his Indian counterparts on how to counter spin in the longest format. Will Young had the unenviable task of stepping into the big void created by Williamson’s absence, but did an admirable job. Latham, Devon Conway and Daryl Mitchell played at least one match-defining innings in the series.

As far as India are concerned, they don’t have much time to lick their wounds before flying to Australia to attempt a third consecutive series win there. If anyone attempts a post mortem of their debacle against the Kiwis, hubris would be counted as one of the big factors.

False sense of security
After the first day of the series was lost to the Bengaluru rain, talk veered towards how India could engineer a positive result in the remaining four days. Needless to say, such speculation emerged after India defeated Bangladesh with a session to spare despite rain and an obsolete drainage system at Kanpur’s Green Park stadium accounting for as many as eight sessions over the first three days.

But those following that line of thought failed to appreciate that the pitch and conditions in Kanpur offered little threat to the hosts’ batting line-up, as did the Bangladesh bowling line-up, hence the strategy to go hammer and tongs with the bat from the start faced few problems. Going for a win from any situation, even when time is not on one’s side, is a characteristic of great teams.

But there is a fine line between confidence and bravado. Under overcast skies, with a pitch that had been under covers for a considerable time, the decision to bat first in Bengaluru could be called a misjudgment at best.

Conditions were akin to what one would expect in Christchurch, and the three-pronged firm of Tim Southee, Matt Henry and William O’Rourke made the most of them. But still, dismissing a team for 46 would require more than a little help from the batsmen. More than one Indian willow-wielder tried to hit out of a tricky situation, which only made the predicament worse. A new ball is supposed to move around, and good batsmen are expected to display technique and patience to counter it. When India got into a good position in their second innings, the second new ball provoked another collapse that left them little to defend in the fourth innings.
Being 0-1 down at home has not been an unusual occurrence for India of late. To overcome the deficit, they have generally gone for conditions that are more spin-friendly, hoping that the disparity in experience in such conditions would work in their favour. They also bank on their big guns raising their game.

Pune indeed rolled out a red carpet for tweakers, but it was more to Santner’s liking than the Indians’. History shows that in home conditions, it’s the mild turners that play into India’s hands. A rank turner often brings the visiting team into the game, reducing the gap between the teams. The skill of Indian batsmen against the turning ball is not what it used to be, as more focus has been put on negotiating quick bowling to succeed overseas.

Conditions such as those provided in Pune and Mumbai make it more of an even contest as one match-defining contribution, with either bat or ball, can make the difference. It shows that for all the tough talk when things are going well, only a slight setback can prompt the team management to roll the dice.

Road ahead
The home series defeat will stay on the records of the current captain and the head coach, as it’s such a rare event. They would have ideally liked an opportunity for a reset, and assess the reality check provided by the setback. But given the enhanced significance of every game under the World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, going for another rank turner and hoping other pieces would fall in place was the call taken.

Such surfaces are unlikely to mirror what India will encounter on the fast and bouncy pitch in Perth, where the five-match series begins on November 22, but with South Africa making hay in Bangladesh and having two home series – against Sri Lanka and Pakistan – to look forward to, the threat from the Proteas is real. If South Africa have a perfect home Test summer, India is likely to require another famous series win Down Under to make the WTC final for the third time in a row.

But the series loss has given India cause to ponder whether our superstars, on whose shoulders this 12-year, 18-series home streak was based, have their powers diminished. India is such a vast country and cricket enjoys such popularity here that prodigious talents will continue to emerge from various nooks and corners. But it takes time for them to turn world-beaters, hence the impression that the Indian team may be entering a transitional phase.