Winter sowing has declined 5.4% until Friday from a year earlier on lower planting across major crops, after a fifth straight year of bumper rabi harvest, although acreage has improved from a 7% drop up to a week before. Water reserves across the country, too, were down 2% from the usual levels until Thursday and 15.7% from a year before, mainly due to sub-normal monsoon showers this year.
According to latest farm ministry data, the area under wheat, the most important winter-sown crop, dropped by 1.8% until Friday, while pulses planting has fallen by 9.7%. Sowing of oilseeds has dipped 7.1% and cereal planting has gone down 10.6%. Total area under winter crops dipped to 51.13 million hectares until Friday, compared with 54 million hectares in the same period of 2013-14, the data showed. Winter planting usually starts around mid-September and is mostly over by mid-January. Farm ministry officials expect planting to soon match last year’s level.
Although sowing is picking up fast, a drop in acreage doesn’t augur well for the farm and allied sector. This is because, buoyed by 4.7% expansion in farm and allied sectors, remarkable by their standards and compared with 1.4% a year before, the overall economy grew 4.7% in 2013-14 even though industrial growth tattered.
Already, kharif grain output has been estimated to drop 7% in 2014-15, mainly due to erratic rainfall earlier this year, and the government is pinning hopes on yet another year of bumper harvest during the rabi season to offset the losses in summer production.
While the mid-year review is targeting 5.5% growth for 2014-15, the economic survey has forecast it at 5.4-5.9%, although it has warned that the weak monsoon could keep growth closer to 5.4%.
Wholesale price inflation hit zero in November, the lowest since July 2009 and, at 4.38%, the consumer price index dropped to its lowest since inception in January 2012, mainly on favourable bases. However, analysts said once the base effect wears off from November-December, food inflation may inch up.
Although global farm commodity prices have declined, any plunge in pulses and oilseed acreage raises reliance on imports, which may not augur well in times of currency devaluation.