Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: The counting has begun for the Lok Sabha election results 2024 and all eyes are on the stock market how it reacts to two possible scenarios – BJP-led NDA winning comfortably as exit polls predicted or the INDIA bloc staging an upset like UPA did in 2004.
In the previous session, all frontline-indices, including Sensex and Nifty, zoomed to fresh peaks and registered their best intraday gains in the post pandemic years. On Monday, the market participants were buoyed by most exit polls showing Narendra Modi’s BJP winning over 350 seats and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) managing to grab between 360 and 400 odd seats.
But what if the exit polls prediction goes wrong and INDIA bloc allies manage to get majority or 295 seats as they are claiming. In this case, the stock market, which has already factored in BJP’s massive win, may tumble like nine pins.
Exit polls have already activated the optimism of a landslide win for the Narendra Modi-led BJP. Amid this, Modi stocks or PSU and infra shares have had a humongous rally, in anticipation of continuation of the reform gains.
Experts are of the view that the sustenance of the broad rally is anticipated to continue in-line with the magnitude of the actual tally, as inflows pours in which were sitting on the sidelines in the last 3 months. Strong economic data like GDP growth of 8.2% in FY24, 100 days measures list and final budget will be the key points market will observe in the coming weeks, according to them.
The Axis My India exit poll estimated 322-340 seats for the BJP – up from 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections and 39-61 seats for its allies. It gave 60-76 seats for the Congress – up from 52 seats in 2019 – and 71-90 seats for its INDIA bloc allies. A political party/alliance needs 272 of 543 Lok Sabha seats to form government at the Centre.