Gold price doesn’t appear to take a breather after crossing $4,000 level. On October 8, gold trades at $4,030, up over 1% from the previous day’s close. Gold is up over 52% YTD and also over the last 12 months. Gold price today in India is Rs 1,22,060 for 10 gram 24 carat.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe gold to touch $4,900 by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 gold price projection to $4,900 per ounce from $4,300, citing strong demand from central banks and ETF investors.

If Goldman Sachs’ prediction holds, another $900 surge will result in a 22.5% return for investors buying gold at current prices.

Between October 2009 and January 2024, gold rose from $1,000 to $2,000 over a period of nearly 15 years. However, it only took 14 months for the price to increase by another $1,000, reaching the $3,000 milestone around March 14, 2025.

With a $1,000 increase in just over 7 months, gold is beating fiat currencies and US Treasuries, fueled by global economic concerns, trade disputes, and the impending US government shutdown.

Global central banks

Global central banks have been a consistent buyer of gold since late 2022. For the last 3 years — 2022, 2023 and 2024 — central banks have bought over 1,000 tonnes of gold in each year.

“Central bank buying is expected to average 80/70 tonnes in 2025/2026 as EM central banks are likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Lina Thomas wrote in a client note.

Global ETFs

Other than central banks who are largely hoarding god in physical form, global investors are using Gold ETFs as a means to park funds. Global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their largest monthly inflow in September, contributing to the most active quarter on record, according to the World Gold Council.

Net inflows into Indian gold ETFs reached $902 million in September 2025, up 285% from $232 million in August. Global gold ETFs’ total assets under management (AUM) reached US$472 bn, by the end of Q3, up over 23% q/q, reaching another record high.

Gold Price Rising

Several factors are contributing to the surge in gold prices. Some of them, like the Russia-Ukraine war, have faded, but fresh triggers are supporting gold prices.

Trump tariffs and global tariff-led trade wars are challenging the US dollar, leading to a nearly 10% decline in the dollar index this year. Additionally, anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Fed bolster the ongoing support for gold.

“Key economic data have been delayed by the US government shutdown, which is currently in its second week, making evaluations of the state of the US economy more difficult. Further layers of uncertainty for international markets are being added by the ongoing political unrest in France and the recent change of leadership in Japan,” says Dr. Renisha Chainani, Head – Research at Augmont.

What to do

Although gold prices have moved consistently since 2022, the recent up move has been sharp and furious. In the last 6 months, gold is up 26%.

Many analysts indicate a notable downside risk to gold prices, as the metal appears overbought after reaching much of its upside potential. Some analysts believe the downturn in gold could be equally sharp, as and when it happens.

Till the time, the factors that led the gold bull run remain pertinent, a major correction may not come. Still, it is better that investors keep their gold exposure at approximately 10% of their portfolio and adjust their holdings as necessary. “If Gold falls below $3,950 (Rs 120,000), we can say, top has been made, and a correction will follow,” adds Dr. Chainani.