The country’s sugar production in the current season — 2023-24 — is likely to be 33.05 million tonne (MT), a decline of around 10% from the previous year, according to the second advance estimate of sweetener output by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) on Wednesday.
However, the body of sugar manufacturers has revised upward the projected output of sweetener from 32.5 MT reported in its first advance estimate last month. The domestic consumption in the 2023-24 season (October-September) is around 28.5 MT.
The body has urged the government to allow an additional 1.8 MT of sugar to be diverted to ethanol production in the current ethanol supply year (ESY). Last month, the government had allowed sugar diversion of only 1.7 MT for production of ethanol via sugarcane juice / B heavy molasses for 2023-24 ESY.
The sugar output for the 2022-23 season was at 36.61 MT, which includes 3.8 MT diverted towards ethanol production. Considering an opening stock of 5.6 MT on October 1, 2023 and domestic consumption projected at 28..5 MT, ISMA has projected a ‘comfortable’ opening stock of around 8.4 MT in the beginning of next season (2024-25) on October 1.
It stated that closing stock will be sufficient enough to cater around three months into next season (2024-25). It said the recent weather conditions have been favourable for the standing cane crop, and cane commissioners of major states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka have done an upward revision of around 5-10% in their sugar production estimates for the 2023-24 season
Meanwhile the food ministry has projected domestic sugar consumption at around 27.5 MT for the current season. ISMA said the actual sugar production till January 31, 2024 in the current season was 18.72 MT, a 4% decline on year. This excludes sugar diverted for ethanol production.
This year around 520 factories are operating against 517 factories which operated last year. Keeping into consideration the fall in sugar production, the government had earlier extended restrictions on sugar exports beyond October 31. India exported 6 MT of sugar in the last sugar season (October-September 2022-23), and a record 11 MT in the year before.
Earlier, the food ministry had directed all sugar mills and distilleries to stop using sugarcane juice for production of ethanol in order to ensure adequate supply of sweetener for domestic consumption.
Food ministry officials said they are reviewing sugar production periodically to explore the possibility of allocating additional volume of sugar for ethanol production. In the 2022-23 season, the country has achieved 12% ethanol blending in petrol, producing 5 billion litres of ethanol.